NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	9.0 [71]		MVP	Nikola Jovic (MIA): +32.7%
Houston Rockets	100		Comeback	6.2 [31]		LVP	Alperen Sengun (HOU): -25.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jovic	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.33	0.14	0.19	-0.00	9	78%	0.33	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.09	0.00	9	83%	0.26	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	3	78%	0.12	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Tyler Herro	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.04,0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	17	66%	0.16	3	-0.08	7	57%	-0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	5	36%	-0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	7	28%	-0.07	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.05	0.03	12	40%	-0.09	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Terry Rozier	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.11	-0.13	0.01	19	35%	-0.18	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amen Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dillon Brooks	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.08	-0.00	20	54%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	17	47%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	41%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Cam Whitmore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.04	7	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Green	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.04	-0.14	0.01	20	40%	-0.15	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.02	-0.22	0.01	14	60%	0.00	5	-0.25	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	1.6	26.4	14.8	28.3	1.0	39.0	138.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.3	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +67.1%

HOU -0.8%

HOU -17.2%

MIA +2.5%

HOU -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	14.9	15.0	14.3	108.3	103.1	112.0
season	14.8	14.7		112.5	111.3
opponent	14.2	14.6		105.8	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.1	16.5	14.8	15.3	14.9
HOU	14.6	15.5	12.8	17.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jovic	58	61	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.33	18	-14	32	15.3	14.2	1.11	15.9	13.5	2.32
Haywood Highsmith	75	74	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.51	10	-6	16	14.5	16.0	-1.47	14.9	15.3	-0.41
Tyler Herro	73	71	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.48	11	-7	18	14.9	14.7	0.15	15.1	14.7	0.41
Bam Adebayo	68	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	5	-6	14.3	16.1	-1.77	15.6	13.6	1.94
Terry Rozier	77	77	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.32	-5	9	-14	15.4	12.8	2.57	15.2	14.2	0.93
Kel'el Ware	28	28	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	-1	6	16.1	14.3	1.77	13.6	15.6	-1.94
Alec Burks	36	39	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	4	-4	14.6	15.0	-0.34	14.4	15.4	-1.05
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	32	34	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.11	-5	9	-14	14.5	15.0	-0.53	15.8	14.5	1.28
Kevin Love	33	32	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.02	-13	17	-30	14.1	15.2	-1.12	12.7	16.1	-3.34

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cam Whitmore	25	23	0.24	-0.74	0.99	0.13	4	-8	12	15.0	15.0	0.07	14.8	14.9	-0.04
Steven Adams	24	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	2	-8	17.1	14.3	2.84	14.5	15.0	-0.47
Dillon Brooks	80	80	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.37	8	-12	20	15.1	14.5	0.56	15.3	12.4	2.90
Fred VanVleet	74	76	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-8	12	15.5	13.3	2.27	15.2	13.5	1.65
Jabari Smith Jr.	57	56	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	0	-4	13.6	17.0	-3.38	13.3	17.1	-3.81
Alperen Sengun	71	71	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-8	12	14.3	16.9	-2.59	14.9	14.7	0.24
Aaron Holiday	26	23	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	3	-10	13.2	15.6	-2.40	12.9	15.5	-2.55
Amen Thompson	61	58	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.32	-15	11	-26	16.4	12.7	3.69	15.9	13.2	2.76
Jalen Green	67	69	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.53	-8	4	-12	14.9	15.3	-0.45	15.0	14.5	0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.46,0.45,0.6,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.83,0.82,0.76,0.8,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.67,0.48,0.46,0.55,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 119, GSW 116	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.7,0.57,0.58,0.81,0.78,0.67,0.78,0.62,0.54,0.65,0.26,0	90.7%
WAS 105, MIA 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.61,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.61,0.53,0.72,0.57,0.08,0	90.4%
UTA 97, DET 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.58,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.77,0.84,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.86,0.88,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.55,0.48,0.32,0.08,0	90.3%