NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	119		Excitement	10.0 [55]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +50.5%
Golden State Warriors	116		Comeback	5.9 [237]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -19.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0.33	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.19	0.16	0.01	8	106%	0.33	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.02,0.13,0.19	0.10	0.09	0.00	27	55%	0.34	2	-0.15	6	83%	0.02
James Harden	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	-0.02	-0.00	13	63%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Nazr Mohammed	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	47%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Reggie Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0	100%	0.02	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.17	0.01	-0.10	0.08	21	65%	0.16	9	-0.33	6	100%	0.04

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.51	0.51	0.30	0.24	0.03	29	71%	0.62	3	-0.12	10	90%	0.09
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.00	5	90%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	1	150%	0.10	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Jenkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	8	45%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.06
David Lee	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09	-0.09	0.02	-0.10	0.01	19	56%	0.11	4	-0.20	7	100%	0.06
Stephen Curry	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.05,-0.1,-0.2	-0.20	0.06	-0.26	0.00	9	80%	0.08	3	-0.28	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	0.7	26.5	15.4	26.6	6.3	41.4	145.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +26.7%

GSW -24.1%

OKC +34.2%

OKC +9.1%

OKC +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	GSW	NBA	OKC	GSW	NBA
this game	14.4	15.3	15.6	122.7	119.6	102.8
season	14.7	15.2		107.9	103.6
opponent	15.4	15.8		106.8	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.7	14.2	14.0	14.9	14.4
GSW	16.0	17.9	13.2	14.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	72	73	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-8	19	14.4	14.6	-0.28	15.7	13.9	1.78
Daequan Cook	67	68	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.38	6	-3	9	14.3	14.8	-0.53	15.0	15.9	-0.91
Serge Ibaka	56	56	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.66	-11	14	-25	15.2	13.4	1.72	14.1	16.8	-2.72
Russell Westbrook	87	87	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.54	-7	10	-17	14.5	13.5	1.04	15.0	17.6	-2.61
Reggie Jackson	16	15	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.10	13	-10	23	13.4	14.6	-1.19	16.3	15.1	1.19
Kevin Durant	89	89	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.49	-8	11	-19	14.5	13.7	0.74	14.9	19.5	-4.62
Nazr Mohammed	16	17	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.13	13	-10	23	13.2	14.7	-1.49	18.3	14.6	3.68
Nick Collison	42	41	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.20	12	-9	21	13.9	14.9	-1.02	16.8	14.1	2.72
Kendrick Perkins	40	39	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	0.05	-14	17	-31	14.9	14.1	0.88	14.7	15.7	-0.99

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ekpe Udoh	32	32	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.03	8	-11	19	15.4	15.2	0.22	14.8	14.3	0.52
Stephen Curry	86	87	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.40	13	-16	29	15.0	17.6	-2.68	14.6	12.7	1.93
Dominic McGuire	10	10	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.30	-13	10	-23	14.1	15.4	-1.29	11.4	14.8	-3.38
Andris Biedrins	26	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-1	-1	16.3	14.9	1.43	14.9	14.3	0.58
Klay Thompson	17	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.19	-10	7	-17	16.8	14.9	1.90	14.4	14.4	-0.10
David Lee	89	89	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.48	12	-15	27	15.1	17.2	-2.17	14.6	13.1	1.43
Dorell Wright	80	81	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.52	9	-12	21	14.6	18.3	-3.68	14.7	13.2	1.49
Charles Jenkins	6	6	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.10	-13	10	-23	18.7	15.0	3.63	11.7	14.6	-2.95
Monta Ellis	84	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.54	5	-8	13	15.1	16.5	-1.48	14.4	14.4	0.06
Brandon Rush	55	52	-1.35	0.85	-2.20	-0.65	-24	21	-45	16.0	14.2	1.80	14.0	14.9	-0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.7,0.57,0.58,0.81,0.78,0.67,0.78,0.62,0.54,0.65,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 93, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.5,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.66,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.54,0.77,0.27,0	91.1%
SEA 89, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.61,0.61,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.55,0.42,0	89.3%
PHX 109, LAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.7,0.71,0.58,0.7,0.57,0.8,0.68,0.69,0.81,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.58,0	88.9%