NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	104		Excitement	6.5 [179]		MVP	Luguentz Dort (OKC): +17.6%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	1.4 [172]		LVP	Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA): -9.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luguentz Dort	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.03	0.00	7	100%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.1	0.07	0.04	0.01	25	58%	0.17	4	-0.07	7	71%	0.01
Isaiah Hartenstein	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	6	65%	0.10	0	0.00	8	62%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.04	0.01	25	48%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Wiggins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	5	40%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ajay Mitchell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	6	108%	0.19	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.10	-0.05	0.03	24	53%	0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	14	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	10	35%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	11	61%	0.07	6	-0.15	6	50%	-0.02
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	7	41%	-0.02	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	8	45%	-0.01	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	24.6	14.6	32.0	1.7	38.4	137.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +26.7%

OKC +5.4%

MIA -9.6%

OKC +26.1%

OKC +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIA	NBA	OKC	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	15.0	14.3	106.1	98.0	111.9
season	14.0	14.8		113.2	112.7
opponent	14.5	14.7		110.3	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	12.0	15.6	13.7	15.9	14.3
MIA	16.2	15.7	15.1	12.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	76	77	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.22	14	-7	21	14.0	15.1	-1.06	14.9	15.3	-0.39
Isaiah Hartenstein	71	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	3	1	14.4	14.0	0.42	14.6	15.9	-1.21
Luguentz Dort	64	67	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.10	10	-3	13	14.3	14.1	0.18	15.0	14.9	0.09
Kenrich Williams	18	19	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.05	13	-6	19	13.4	14.4	-1.01	16.5	14.6	1.86
Jalen Williams	72	74	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.23	1	6	-5	14.5	13.5	0.99	14.9	15.1	-0.15
Isaiah Joe	31	31	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	-3	13	13.4	14.7	-1.24	17.3	13.9	3.38
Alex Caruso	53	52	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.32	-3	10	-13	15.1	13.3	1.81	14.4	15.6	-1.27
Aaron Wiggins	28	26	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	5	-3	14.3	14.2	0.08	14.5	15.1	-0.64
Cason Wallace	49	49	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.15	-1	8	-9	13.3	15.3	-2.00	14.9	15.1	-0.22
Ajay Mitchell	28	28	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	0.10	-15	22	-37	15.4	13.8	1.58	14.2	15.3	-1.00

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	17	15	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-4	1	16.5	14.7	1.81	12.1	14.7	-2.60
Terry Rozier	46	47	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-9	11	15.9	14.2	1.72	14.3	14.2	0.06
Kevin Love	7	7	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.09	-8	1	-9	16.1	14.9	1.26	12.1	14.4	-2.29
Nikola Jovic	39	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-4	1	15.4	14.7	0.64	13.8	14.6	-0.75
Bam Adebayo	74	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.37	5	-12	17	14.8	15.4	-0.63	14.6	13.2	1.38
Haywood Highsmith	50	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.03	-9	2	-11	15.8	14.1	1.68	13.3	15.3	-2.00
Tyler Herro	75	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-5	3	14.8	15.5	-0.75	14.6	13.4	1.13
Duncan Robinson	64	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-4	1	14.3	16.2	-1.90	14.5	13.9	0.54
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	61	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-2	-3	14.4	15.9	-1.59	14.9	13.2	1.72
Dru Smith	62	63	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.25	-9	2	-11	14.5	15.7	-1.17	14.5	13.9	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.34,0.31,0.44,0.49,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.06,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 86, POR 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.41,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.02,0	94.0%
SAC 115, WAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.8%
UTA 99, PHX 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.07,0,0,0	93.7%