NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	111		Excitement	6.3 [225]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +27.4%
Miami Heat	121		Comeback	1.9 [286]		LVP	Bradley Beal (PHX): -12.2%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Royce O'Neale	0.19	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.04	-0.02	15	72%	0.22	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Grayson Allen	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	10	73%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Monte Morris	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.02	0.01	6	86%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Josh Okogie	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	64%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Tyus Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.02	9	65%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Oso Ighodaro	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Booker	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.01	0.04	16	52%	0.05	5	-0.15	8	100%	0.04
Bradley Beal	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	18	36%	-0.05	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.19	0.09	0.01	12	83%	0.29	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.09	-0.03	16	62%	0.23	4	-0.07	8	75%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.16	-0.01	0.01	12	79%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	8	64%	0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	70%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	0.04	12	71%	0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	10	46%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.03	-0.00	8	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.0	24.0	14.5	31.2	2.0	35.0	133.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.3	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.4%

PHX -5.9%

MIA +7.3%

MIA +18.7%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	14.7	14.3	115.6	127.4	112.0
season	14.8	14.8		112.8	112.5
opponent	14.6	14.3		110.7	114.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.9	16.3	17.2	13.4	15.4
MIA	14.5	15.6	12.8	16.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Okogie	26	27	0.16	-0.66	0.81	-0.11	9	-19	28	15.7	15.3	0.40	14.4	14.8	-0.38
Monte Morris	37	37	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.19	9	-19	28	15.2	15.6	-0.45	13.8	15.3	-1.44
Oso Ighodaro	41	44	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.21	8	-18	26	14.6	16.1	-1.53	14.4	15.0	-0.57
Grayson Allen	61	60	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.28	8	-18	26	14.9	16.5	-1.60	14.3	15.5	-1.17
Royce O'Neale	63	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.05	-11	1	-12	14.8	16.7	-1.87	15.0	14.2	0.84
Devin Booker	77	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.12	-9	-1	-8	14.6	18.7	-4.11	14.4	15.9	-1.52
Mason Plumlee	48	45	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.09	-21	11	-32	17.3	13.5	3.79	15.3	14.2	1.09
Tyus Jones	59	58	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.02	-19	9	-28	15.6	15.2	0.45	15.3	13.8	1.44
Bradley Beal	68	66	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.15	-24	14	-38	16.6	12.7	3.84	15.1	13.9	1.23

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	67	71	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.07	22	-12	34	14.6	14.9	-0.25	15.4	15.5	-0.11
Haywood Highsmith	56	58	0.66	-0.16	0.82	-0.01	23	-13	36	14.8	14.6	0.13	15.5	15.3	0.16
Duncan Robinson	56	57	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.07	20	-10	30	14.8	14.6	0.21	17.2	12.8	4.45
Jimmy Butler	69	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-1	12	14.7	14.9	-0.23	15.0	16.6	-1.62
Tyler Herro	69	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-1	12	14.7	14.9	-0.23	15.0	16.6	-1.62
Dru Smith	58	59	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.19	-6	16	-22	14.7	14.8	-0.16	14.7	16.6	-1.93
Terry Rozier	33	32	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.19	-6	16	-22	14.9	14.6	0.34	15.5	15.4	0.09
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	39	38	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.22	-13	23	-36	14.6	14.8	-0.13	15.3	15.5	-0.16
Kevin Love	28	25	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.14	-12	22	-34	14.9	14.6	0.25	15.5	15.4	0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.82,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.86,0.93,0.89,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 98, NOH 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.55,0.61,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	93.5%
MIL 86, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.77,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1	93.2%
LAC 109, NOP 116	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.8,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.99,1	93.2%