NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	125		Excitement	4.5 [359]		MVP	Kyrie Irving (DAL): +19.8%
Toronto Raptors	118		Comeback	1.4 [398]		LVP	Ochai Agbaji (TOR): -8.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.01	0.02	14	88%	0.24	3	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Luka Doncic	0.08	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.02	0.04	20	65%	0.15	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.02
Spencer Dinwiddie	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	55%	0.06	0	0.00	8	100%	0.03
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	2	62%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Daniel Gafford	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	6	83%	0.07	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	16	59%	0.07	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Dereck Lively II	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	58%	0.03	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Dwight Powell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Washington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	12	43%	0.04	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Quentin Grimes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.14	0.00	0.07	3	130%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Gradey Dick	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.01	0.02	21	56%	0.07	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.02
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.03	11	71%	0.10	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Jamison Battle	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ja'Kobe Walter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	10	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.05	16	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Mogbo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	7	57%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	2	17%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	0.06	17	56%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ochai Agbaji	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	6	33%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.6	30.6	14.0	25.3	2.5	32.2	130.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.3	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +28.4%

DAL +16.5%

DAL +9.8%

TOR -3.1%

TOR -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	TOR	NBA	DAL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.3	12.9	14.3	117.9	111.3	112.0
season	14.0	13.8		115.9	109.1
opponent	14.7	14.6		116.3	111.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.4	13.3	14.3	15.0	14.3
TOR	13.3	12.4	12.8	13.2	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luka Doncic	85	85	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-3	13	14.1	14.9	-0.75	12.8	13.4	-0.58
Kyrie Irving	88	88	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.25	6	1	5	14.1	15.2	-1.17	12.5	15.1	-2.58
Spencer Dinwiddie	53	54	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.22	3	4	-1	14.3	14.2	0.06	13.0	12.8	0.14
P.J. Washington	77	77	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	6	-5	14.2	14.3	-0.08	12.4	14.2	-1.83
Daniel Gafford	46	44	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	3	1	14.1	14.4	-0.26	13.2	12.7	0.46
Dereck Lively II	60	62	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.16	3	4	-1	14.4	14.1	0.26	12.7	13.2	-0.46
Quentin Grimes	38	37	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.05	6	1	5	13.8	14.5	-0.64	13.7	12.5	1.21
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	22	23	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	5	-3	14.1	14.3	-0.15	14.0	12.6	1.39
Dwight Powell	7	6	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	3	1	14.9	14.2	0.65	15.2	12.8	2.39
Klay Thompson	54	54	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.20	-4	11	-15	15.1	13.4	1.67	13.2	12.6	0.59

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamison Battle	10	11	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-5	3	11.9	13.0	-1.12	12.4	14.5	-2.11
Ja'Kobe Walter	44	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-13	19	13.6	12.4	1.16	14.4	14.2	0.18
Kelly Olynyk	28	30	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.23	1	-8	9	14.7	12.3	2.49	13.8	14.4	-0.63
Scottie Barnes	84	83	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.50	10	-17	27	12.3	15.1	-2.75	14.5	13.3	1.21
Ochai Agbaji	42	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	-1	-5	12.7	13.0	-0.29	15.3	13.5	1.80
Jonathan Mogbo	47	47	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	-1	-5	13.4	12.5	0.88	13.9	14.6	-0.73
Jakob Poeltl	78	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	1	-9	12.3	14.7	-2.49	14.4	13.8	0.63
RJ Barrett	61	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.07	-13	6	-19	12.6	13.4	-0.80	14.0	14.6	-0.57
Davion Mitchell	59	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-2	-3	13.6	12.1	1.49	13.8	14.7	-0.89
Gradey Dick	77	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	5	-17	12.8	13.1	-0.26	14.3	14.1	0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 97, WAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.07,0,0,0	96.6%
MIA 93, BOS 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0	95.7%
BOS 95, MIA 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	95.7%