NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	122		Excitement	8.5 [82]		MVP	Norman Powell (LAC): +40.0%
LA Clippers	126		Comeback	4.3 [71]		LVP	Ivica Zubac (LAC): -18.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Julian Strawther	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.10	0.00	7	100%	0.26	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	9	72%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.01	11	69%	0.17	1	-0.05	4	25%	-0.10
Aaron Gordon	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.00	7	67%	0.14	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.00	12	69%	0.12	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	65%	0.12	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.05
Russell Westbrook	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	11	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.06
Nikola Jokic	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15	0.00	-0.11	0.03	24	54%	0.06	5	-0.20	4	50%	-0.08

LA Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Norman Powell	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.25,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.20	0.22	0.02	17	72%	0.43	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.08
James Harden	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.26,0.27	0.27	0.13	0.11	-0.04	26	60%	0.42	5	-0.15	13	100%	0.10
Terance Mann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.11	0.00	7	94%	0.26	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amir Coffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	11	59%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kris Dunn	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ivica Zubac	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.07	-0.02	9	26%	-0.08	3	-0.10	5	40%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.3	24.3	14.6	24.3	2.3	42.7	136.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -13.8%

LAC +49.1%

LAC +9.8%

LAC +3.0%

LAC +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAC	NBA	DEN	LAC	NBA
this game	12.8	15.4	14.3	120.8	122.3	111.9
season	13.6	15.0		115.4	110.5
opponent	14.0	14.5		107.5	113.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	12.5	14.7	10.1	12.8
LAC	13.1	15.2	15.3	18.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peyton Watson	59	61	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.05	1	-5	6	13.8	11.4	2.43	15.1	15.9	-0.80
Christian Braun	73	74	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-4	4	12.9	12.5	0.47	15.7	14.6	1.10
Julian Strawther	40	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	-2	0	12.1	13.3	-1.20	15.6	15.3	0.36
Michael Porter Jr.	66	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-7	10	13.3	11.9	1.40	15.8	14.7	1.05
Russell Westbrook	52	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	3	-10	12.3	13.3	-0.98	15.8	15.0	0.85
Nikola Jokic	82	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	3	-10	13.1	11.6	1.51	14.8	17.9	-3.11
Jamal Murray	81	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.48	-1	-3	2	12.9	12.4	0.44	15.1	16.8	-1.70
Aaron Gordon	52	53	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.43	-7	3	-10	11.3	14.4	-3.08	15.8	15.0	0.71

LA Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terance Mann	55	55	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.41	11	-7	18	15.8	15.0	0.76	11.4	14.5	-3.16
James Harden	81	79	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.30	14	-10	24	15.6	14.9	0.69	13.3	11.2	2.07
Nicolas Batum	52	50	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.42	9	-5	14	15.9	14.9	0.96	11.4	14.2	-2.78
Ivica Zubac	72	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	-6	16	15.5	15.3	0.17	13.4	11.3	2.09
Norman Powell	54	50	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.27	2	2	0	15.8	15.0	0.78	12.4	13.2	-0.76
Mo Bamba	29	29	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	6	-8	15.1	15.5	-0.42	11.5	13.3	-1.80
Jordan Miller	33	33	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.17	-6	10	-16	15.7	15.3	0.47	11.2	13.6	-2.32
Amir Coffey	38	40	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	6	-8	14.3	16.1	-1.77	13.7	12.2	1.45
Derrick Jones Jr.	51	51	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	9	-14	14.9	15.9	-0.96	14.2	11.4	2.78
Kris Dunn	50	47	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.12	-11	15	-26	15.1	15.7	-0.56	14.3	11.5	2.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.26,0.19,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.61,0.76,0.79,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 65, NYK 72	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.76,0.66,0.71,0.84,0.86,0.92,1	93.0%
BOS 94, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.69,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.31,0.29,0.44,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.94,0.98,1	92.7%
MIN 102, UTA 108	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	92.0%