NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	116		Excitement	6.6 [547]		MVP	RJ Barrett (TOR): +32.5%
Toronto Raptors	119		Comeback	1.8 [374]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -18.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.07	-0.01	9	71%	0.22	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Tyler Herro	0.15	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.15	0.25	-0.04	0.06	16	79%	0.17	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Terry Rozier	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	12	61%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Haywood Highsmith	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Love	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	6	57%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Duncan Robinson	-0.14	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	12	33%	-0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18	-0.09	-0.06	0.03	13	46%	-0.03	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.32	0.33	0.25	0.11	0.04	20	84%	0.41	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Ja'Kobe Walter	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	0.00	10	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	17	59%	0.15	4	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	12	53%	0.08	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ochai Agbaji	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	8	44%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Shead	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Mogbo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	60%	0.05	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamison Battle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.4	27.6	14.8	27.3	2.5	35.5	136.5
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +61.1%

MIA -16.6%

TOR +7.1%

MIA -2.3%

TOR +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.2	14.3	14.4	114.9	117.8	113.0
season	15.0	13.9		111.5	109.0
opponent	14.6	14.6		113.0	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	14.5	14.1	12.6	14.2
TOR	13.8	13.7	13.6	16.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alec Burks	15	15	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.08	11	-14	25	13.2	14.4	-1.16	13.8	14.4	-0.62
Bam Adebayo	81	81	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.47	15	-18	33	13.4	17.2	-3.76	14.6	13.2	1.34
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	41	39	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.07	1	-4	5	13.9	14.4	-0.44	14.8	14.0	0.85
Haywood Highsmith	55	55	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-6	9	14.6	13.7	0.94	15.2	13.2	2.00
Duncan Robinson	46	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	2	-7	15.3	13.3	2.05	13.4	15.0	-1.59
Terry Rozier	61	61	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-7	11	13.4	15.4	-1.97	15.0	13.3	1.62
Pelle Larsson	38	39	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	4	-11	13.0	14.9	-1.95	13.8	14.7	-0.91
Kevin Love	22	22	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.00	-17	14	-31	16.0	13.7	2.37	12.2	14.9	-2.74
Jimmy Butler	70	72	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.29	-9	6	-15	15.0	12.3	2.78	14.3	14.4	-0.07
Tyler Herro	76	77	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.34	-11	8	-19	14.2	14.0	0.20	14.2	14.9	-0.72

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davion Mitchell	59	61	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.17	20	-17	37	14.4	14.2	0.23	14.1	14.3	-0.19
RJ Barrett	79	78	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.23	15	-12	27	14.1	15.3	-1.27	14.7	12.3	2.38
Chris Boucher	33	35	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.11	17	-14	31	14.5	14.3	0.19	13.7	14.4	-0.73
Ochai Agbaji	81	79	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	0	3	13.9	15.9	-1.96	14.4	13.4	1.05
Jonathan Mogbo	29	29	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.04	9	-6	15	13.6	14.6	-0.99	14.6	14.0	0.61
Jakob Poeltl	78	77	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.45	-11	14	-25	14.7	13.1	1.55	13.9	15.1	-1.17
Scottie Barnes	74	73	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.38	-12	15	-27	14.7	13.3	1.36	13.9	15.0	-1.12
Jamison Battle	28	29	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	6	-9	14.9	14.1	0.83	13.3	14.5	-1.23
Ja'Kobe Walter	34	35	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.15	-12	15	-27	14.2	14.4	-0.23	15.3	13.6	1.77
Jamal Shead	10	9	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.11	-11	14	-25	14.1	14.4	-0.25	11.7	14.4	-2.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.9,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 89, CHA 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.87,0.84,0.91,1	93.8%
DET 109, SAS 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.39,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.5%
WAS 112, DET 121	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.78,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%