NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	10.0 [21]		MVP	Nikola Jovic (MIA): +55.6%
Minnesota Timberwolves	94		Comeback	17.7 [8]		LVP	Mike Conley (MIN): -61.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jovic	0.56	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.56	0.08	0.48	0.00	11	65%	0.57	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.07
Terry Rozier	0.16	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.16	-0.01	0.15	-0.03	8	58%	0.29	3	-0.12	3	100%	0.09
Tyler Herro	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	15	74%	0.39	8	-0.35	5	80%	0.03
Haywood Highsmith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.01	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.10
Kel'el Ware	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.09	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	1	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	8	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.15	-0.08	-0.02	11	32%	-0.11	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.11

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.12	0.15	0.00	6	100%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden McDaniels	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.19	0.19	0.00	0.19	0.01	9	45%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Naz Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	11	65%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Julius Randle	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.07	-0.00	16	47%	0.12	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	44%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	64%	0.05	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Edwards	0,0,0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	24	43%	0.01	6	-0.19	3	67%	-0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.62	-0.62	-0.15	-0.47	-0.00	9	22%	-0.43	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.7	26.9	14.8	27.5	1.8	46.3	145.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.9%

MIA +56.4%

MIN -27.4%

MIN -17.5%

MIA +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	13.7	15.2	14.4	95.0	95.9	112.0
season	14.7	14.7		110.3	111.4
opponent	14.6	14.6		108.9	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.3	13.9	14.6	12.1	13.7
MIN	15.0	14.3	14.8	16.7	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	28	26	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.52	10	-9	19	14.3	13.5	0.77	15.2	15.2	-0.03
Nikola Jovic	48	49	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.40	10	-9	19	12.6	14.8	-2.25	16.2	14.2	2.02
Terry Rozier	65	64	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.66	-5	6	-11	13.8	13.5	0.33	15.3	15.0	0.33
Duncan Robinson	36	35	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	-1	3	14.2	13.5	0.68	15.6	15.0	0.60
Bam Adebayo	85	81	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-11	23	13.4	15.8	-2.44	15.1	15.6	-0.45
Tyler Herro	70	69	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.48	-6	7	-13	13.7	13.7	0.04	15.0	15.8	-0.87
Pelle Larsson	8	7	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	-2	5	10.6	14.0	-3.38	16.4	15.1	1.31
Haywood Highsmith	69	66	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.18	-5	6	-11	13.9	13.3	0.68	15.2	15.3	-0.19
Josh Richardson	42	42	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.16	0	1	-1	14.2	13.4	0.83	14.4	15.9	-1.50
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	33	34	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.14	-2	3	-5	14.3	13.4	0.90	14.6	15.5	-0.91
Kel'el Ware	16	17	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	-0.02	-14	15	-29	14.8	13.5	1.29	15.6	15.1	0.45

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donte DiVincenzo	61	61	0.42	-0.92	1.33	0.33	3	-4	7	14.6	16.2	-1.61	13.8	13.6	0.19
Naz Reid	46	44	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.11	10	-11	21	14.8	15.6	-0.73	14.2	13.4	0.85
Rudy Gobert	64	68	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.14	-4	3	-7	15.7	14.3	1.36	13.6	13.9	-0.26
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	53	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	2	-5	15.8	14.5	1.30	14.1	13.3	0.84
Jaden McDaniels	68	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.56	5	-6	11	15.0	15.7	-0.70	13.5	14.4	-0.96
Anthony Edwards	75	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.59	2	-3	5	15.0	16.0	-1.03	13.8	13.4	0.41
Julius Randle	73	75	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.64	-2	1	-3	15.2	15.4	-0.25	13.8	13.6	0.12
Mike Conley	50	51	-1.07	0.57	-1.64	-0.60	-16	15	-31	15.8	14.6	1.24	13.1	14.3	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.5,0.49,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.45,0.59,0.77,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.55,0.65,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 100, PHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.74,0	92.5%
POR 106, LAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.43,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.48,0.67,0.63,0.77,0.84,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.91,0	90.5%
MIA 75, NYK 72	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.61,0.53,0.79,0.85,0.85,0	89.7%