NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	113		Excitement	7.8 [333]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +37.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	107		Comeback	7.0 [358]		LVP	Damian Lillard (MIL): -19.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.02	0.18	0.02	21	54%	0.33	5	-0.14	15	87%	0.07
Derrick White	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.08	-0.00	12	62%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0.17	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.08	-0.00	11	62%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Al Horford	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	7	60%	0.10	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Neemias Queta	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	6	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Payton Pritchard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.09	-0.06	0.02	10	86%	0.10	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Xavier Tillman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	13	44%	-0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.22	0.16	0.01	29	63%	0.39	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.04
AJ Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.13	0.09	0.01	6	100%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.00	3	87%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.00	12	58%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Rollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andre Jackson Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	3	12%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Taurean Prince	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	0.01	-0.12	0.03	6	75%	0.02	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	15	40%	-0.07	3	-0.12	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.7	26.1	15.4	25.5	2.5	37.4	136.7
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +4.7%

BOS +4.6%

BOS +15.0%

BOS +16.8%

BOS +8.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.2	15.1	14.4	114.1	109.2	113.1
season	15.3	14.4		118.3	114.2
opponent	14.3	14.6		112.2	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.0	13.5	14.2	16.6	14.2
MIL	12.7	16.5	14.6	16.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jrue Holiday	70	66	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.42	15	-9	24	14.0	14.7	-0.73	14.5	16.2	-1.66
Jayson Tatum	82	80	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.38	9	-3	12	14.2	14.1	0.07	15.0	15.4	-0.46
Al Horford	65	64	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-2	10	13.9	14.7	-0.86	15.0	15.1	-0.12
Jaylen Brown	78	78	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	0	6	14.5	13.0	1.43	15.2	14.5	0.72
Derrick White	73	74	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.39	4	2	2	14.8	12.5	2.32	15.4	14.1	1.31
Xavier Tillman	1	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.04	-2	8	-10	2.0	14.3	-12.30	12.0	15.1	-3.10
Sam Hauser	28	27	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.03	0	6	-6	13.3	14.5	-1.19	14.0	15.5	-1.43
Luke Kornet	13	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.04	-1	7	-8	15.0	14.0	0.95	15.7	15.0	0.77
Neemias Queta	39	41	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.07	-1	7	-8	14.2	14.2	0.01	15.7	14.6	1.05
Payton Pritchard	46	47	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	-0.13	-8	14	-22	14.0	14.4	-0.40	15.2	14.9	0.31

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Rollins	27	25	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.15	6	-12	18	15.8	14.8	0.97	14.7	14.0	0.73
Pat Connaughton	27	26	0.19	-0.69	0.89	0.02	6	-12	18	16.1	14.7	1.49	14.7	14.0	0.65
Bobby Portis	46	47	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.10	4	-10	14	15.0	15.2	-0.18	14.9	13.5	1.37
Andre Jackson Jr.	48	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-2	-2	15.4	14.7	0.68	12.6	15.6	-3.00
AJ Green	52	54	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	-1	-4	14.4	15.9	-1.50	15.6	12.5	3.13
Brook Lopez	59	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.23	-10	4	-14	14.9	15.3	-0.31	13.7	14.8	-1.11
Taurean Prince	77	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.28	-9	3	-12	15.2	14.7	0.45	13.9	15.0	-1.10
Giannis Antetokounmpo	83	82	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.37	-6	0	-6	15.0	15.4	-0.39	14.1	14.5	-0.36
Damian Lillard	71	74	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.47	-12	6	-18	14.8	15.8	-0.97	14.0	14.7	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.72,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.71,0.63,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.39,0.31,0.11,0.1,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 78, IND 71	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.09,0.03,0	91.8%
DET 114, PHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.73,0.79,0.69,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.25,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.31,0.04,0,0,0	91.5%
MIA 90, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.82,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.26,0	91.4%