NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	7.9 [246]		MVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): +30.3%
Chicago Bulls	83		Comeback	8.0 [59]		LVP	Jamal Crawford (CHI): -47.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.3	0.12	0.18	0.00	5	110%	0.30	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21	0.09	0.13	0.01	11	69%	0.21	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Lamar Odom	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.02	18	61%	0.14	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.03
Eddie Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.1,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	10	50%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Malik Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	3	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Wang Zhi-zhi	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	10	36%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-0.00	9	11%	-0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.09	0.00	10	38%	-0.11	3	-0.10	6	33%	-0.07

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.04	-0.00	9	89%	0.25	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	7	72%	0.07	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.08
Kendall Gill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.08	0.08	-0.03	14	40%	0.14	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	10	64%	0.08	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linton Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Jefferies	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	13	39%	-0.14	0	0.00	10	80%	0.03
Eddie Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.01	8	22%	-0.11	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.31,-0.36,-0.32,-0.32,-0.47	-0.47	-0.22	-0.30	-0.04	16	24%	-0.36	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.5	27.3	15.6	22.5	2.5	34.2	126.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.8%

MIA +17.8%

CHI -23.7%

MIA +28.2%

MIA +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.9	15.3	15.7	101.1	92.2	100.5
season	16.2	15.2		99.3	94.6
opponent	15.4	15.9		101.3	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	20.1	16.1	16.9	16.9
CHI	13.2	16.8	16.6	15.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	83	84	0.68	-0.17	0.85	0.21	16	-9	25	16.3	25.7	-9.41	15.1	17.5	-2.36
Brian Grant	57	60	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	-2	11	16.1	18.4	-2.32	15.3	15.4	-0.10
Rasual Butler	41	42	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.31	3	4	-1	18.8	15.2	3.55	15.1	15.4	-0.29
Rafer Alston	50	52	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	4	-1	17.8	15.8	1.99	14.5	16.4	-1.94
Eddie Jones	59	60	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.30	1	6	-5	17.0	16.6	0.43	16.2	13.4	2.85
Dwyane Wade	69	69	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	-3	13	16.1	19.5	-3.37	15.1	16.0	-0.85
Caron Butler	48	47	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	3	1	15.2	18.8	-3.55	15.4	15.2	0.26
Malik Allen	7	7	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.10	5	2	3	15.7	17.0	-1.27	14.7	15.3	-0.64
Samaki Walker	25	23	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.12	-7	14	-21	19.1	16.0	3.10	15.6	15.2	0.36
Wang Zhi-zhi	6	6	-0.17	0.68	-0.85	0.09	-9	16	-25	25.7	16.3	9.41	17.5	15.1	2.36

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Robinson	41	39	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.13	9	-16	25	14.5	15.9	-1.40	17.7	16.2	1.52
Corie Blount	11	11	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-12	17	18.0	14.9	3.08	22.8	16.1	6.77
Rick Brunson	17	16	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.05	-1	-6	5	13.4	15.8	-2.40	16.1	17.1	-0.93
Eddy Curry	27	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.13	4	-11	15	15.0	15.4	-0.48	19.3	15.9	3.36
Linton Johnson	4	4	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-6	5	13.7	15.4	-1.62	23.2	16.6	6.66
Chris Jefferies	7	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.10	-5	-2	-3	14.7	15.3	-0.64	15.7	17.0	-1.27
Kendall Gill	68	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.20	-9	2	-11	15.0	16.2	-1.23	16.2	19.0	-2.70
Antonio Davis	63	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.16	-11	4	-15	15.4	15.0	0.48	15.9	19.3	-3.36
Jerome Williams	75	74	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.18	-11	4	-15	15.0	16.9	-1.88	15.7	22.9	-7.27
Jamal Crawford	80	80	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.29	-9	2	-11	15.9	10.8	5.06	17.0	15.6	1.48
Kirk Hinrich	57	57	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.40	-6	-1	-5	16.1	14.0	2.10	17.2	16.3	0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.82,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 102, CHA 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.82,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.38,0.47,0.26,0.3,0.17,0.08,0.16,0.09,0.09,0	92.0%
MIL 100, CHH 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.48,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.08,0	91.6%
MIN 78, IND 71	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.09,0.03,0	91.3%