NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	102		Excitement	7.1 [407]		MVP	Marvin Williams (ATL): +23.5%
Charlotte Bobcats	97		Comeback	8.2 [86]		LVP	Raymond Felton (CHA): -15.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0.24	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.3,0.24	0.10	0.14	0.01	15	58%	0.30	2	-0.06	20	90%	0.10
Maurice Evans	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.01	0.01	10	85%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.01	9	68%	0.18	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	-0.04	0.05	-0.02	13	52%	0.10	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Acie Law	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	5	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Solomon Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	10	42%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
Josh Smith	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	13	27%	-0.10	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.06

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Boris Diaw	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.03	0.01	8	73%	0.13	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Raja Bell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	11	63%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	61%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	11	52%	0.09	3	-0.10	7	43%	-0.04
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.11,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	8	44%	0.09	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
Adam Morrison	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	17	39%	-0.02	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.0	29.3	15.0	35.0	2.5	35.4	143.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +6.5%

ATL +14.7%

ATL +13.8%

ATL +17.9%

CHA -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHA	NBA	ATL	CHA	NBA
this game	15.8	16.4	15.5	114.6	107.8	106.4
season	15.8	16.5		106.7	103.0
opponent	15.6	16.1		104.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.6	17.2	13.3	17.8	15.8
CHA	15.1	17.0	16.2	17.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	75	75	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.29	8	-3	11	15.6	17.2	-1.65	16.4	16.2	0.19
Zaza Pachulia	46	48	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.29	8	-3	11	15.1	16.6	-1.56	16.1	16.6	-0.45
Maurice Evans	54	57	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.27	7	-2	9	17.5	13.3	4.22	16.9	15.5	1.37
Mike Bibby	66	68	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.24	4	1	3	15.7	16.3	-0.59	17.2	13.7	3.48
Josh Smith	69	69	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.05	8	-3	11	15.1	18.4	-3.33	16.3	16.6	-0.28
Al Horford	52	52	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.44	-8	13	-21	17.9	12.9	5.06	16.9	15.6	1.25
Acie Law	25	24	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	6	-7	16.1	15.7	0.42	14.5	17.0	-2.59
Ronald Murray	47	46	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.13	-3	8	-11	14.4	17.4	-3.05	15.4	17.3	-1.93
Solomon Jones	11	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.07	2	3	-1	13.7	16.1	-2.39	15.2	16.5	-1.34

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cartier Martin	38	38	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.20	8	-13	21	15.5	17.0	-1.48	15.8	15.8	-0.01
Raja Bell	58	58	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	1	-7	15.9	17.1	-1.19	14.9	17.6	-2.75
D.J. Augustin	29	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.23	3	-8	11	16.8	16.1	0.70	17.0	15.2	1.80
Adam Morrison	34	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.09	-10	5	-15	17.2	15.8	1.37	14.6	16.6	-1.95
Emeka Okafor	73	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-6	7	16.9	14.2	2.69	16.0	15.0	1.01
DeSagana Diop	53	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-3	1	16.6	16.0	0.56	16.8	14.5	2.33
Boris Diaw	69	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	1	-7	15.9	18.0	-2.08	15.6	16.6	-1.07
Shannon Brown	15	15	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.31	-6	1	-7	17.7	16.1	1.57	19.3	15.1	4.23
Raymond Felton	81	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.28	-7	2	-9	16.1	18.7	-2.57	15.3	19.4	-4.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.82,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.38,0.47,0.26,0.3,0.17,0.08,0.16,0.09,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 109, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.85,0.83,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.07,0.03,0.16,0	92.5%
MIA 90, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.82,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.26,0	92.0%
POR 100, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.74,0.61,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.08,0	91.7%