NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	100		Excitement	7.7 [363]		MVP	CJ McCollum (POR): +44.2%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	5.6 [116]		LVP	Paul Millsap (DEN): -12.0%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0.44	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.34,0.44	0.19	0.28	0.03	29	62%	0.44	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Evan Turner	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2	0.08	0.12	0.00	7	61%	0.20	0	0.00	9	89%	0.04
Zach Collins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.07	-0.01	6	50%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Maurice Harkless	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	5	55%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Rodney Hood	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	6	43%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	13	46%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Seth Curry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.03	-0.00	17	32%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	11	62%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	9	44%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	53%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.02
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	45%	0.00	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.04
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.01,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.01	26	49%	0.05	2	-0.08	7	71%	-0.04
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.01	18	38%	-0.05	1	-0.02	9	100%	0.05
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	13	31%	-0.12	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	3.3	31.7	15.3	29.4	3.4	43.3	152.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +58.8%

DEN -3.5%

DEN -10.8%

POR +4.9%

POR +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	15.0	15.5	14.3	105.3	102.1	109.3
season	14.9	14.8		112.6	112.0
opponent	14.6	13.9		108.1	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.3	14.5	13.9	16.0	15.0
DEN	14.0	14.9	18.9	14.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	90	88	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.35	8	-4	12	14.9	15.6	-0.68	15.7	13.2	2.52
CJ McCollum	88	88	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	-2	8	15.1	13.7	1.34	15.8	11.2	4.65
Seth Curry	33	31	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.28	7	-3	10	15.4	14.7	0.71	15.2	15.7	-0.54
Evan Turner	39	38	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.39	1	3	-2	15.2	14.8	0.46	15.4	15.6	-0.26
Enes Kanter	80	80	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	2	0	14.5	17.5	-3.06	15.2	17.4	-2.16
Zach Collins	44	44	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	-1	6	15.0	14.9	0.08	16.5	14.7	1.75
Meyers Leonard	14	12	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.00	8	-4	12	14.8	15.0	-0.20	14.9	15.6	-0.69
Maurice Harkless	35	34	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.16	-7	11	-18	15.0	14.9	0.07	15.1	15.8	-0.68
Rodney Hood	39	41	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.02	-2	6	-8	14.4	15.4	-0.97	15.2	15.8	-0.62
Al-Farouq Aminu	14	14	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.06	-7	11	-18	16.1	14.8	1.39	15.4	15.5	-0.19

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	13	15	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-3	2	17.2	15.3	1.89	14.7	15.0	-0.35
Torrey Craig	67	66	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.33	6	-10	16	15.1	16.6	-1.56	14.7	15.6	-0.95
Monte Morris	20	20	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-2	0	16.9	15.1	1.81	14.2	15.1	-0.90
Mason Plumlee	37	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.03	-6	2	-8	14.5	16.2	-1.66	14.8	15.1	-0.32
Paul Millsap	61	62	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.34	3	-7	10	16.4	14.0	2.39	15.2	14.5	0.68
Jamal Murray	74	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.26	-2	-2	0	15.1	16.9	-1.81	15.1	14.2	0.90
Nikola Jokic	83	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	1	-6	15.4	16.4	-0.95	15.0	14.7	0.33
Will Barton	39	40	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	5	-14	14.8	16.0	-1.20	15.1	14.8	0.33
Gary Harris	77	76	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.32	-7	3	-10	15.7	14.5	1.21	14.9	15.3	-0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.74,0.61,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 104, LAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.68,0.61,0.69,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.63,0.75,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.27,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.04,0,0.01,0	93.1%
CLE 108, BOS 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.28,0.31,0.15,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.1%
POR 109, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.85,0.83,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.07,0.03,0.16,0	93.0%