NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	122		Excitement	9.6 [22]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +28.1%
Denver Nuggets	124		Comeback	10.8 [7]		LVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): -20.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Wiggins	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.08	-0.00	9	68%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09	0.16	-0.05	0.02	20	64%	0.12	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.05
Ousmane Dieng	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chet Holmgren	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	14	48%	0.13	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Luguentz Dort	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03	0.07	-0.04	0.01	6	79%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ajay Mitchell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	11	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	8	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	9	11%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.21	-0.04	-0.16	0.01	19	58%	0.04	8	-0.25	10	80%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.14	0.14	-0.01	16	67%	0.31	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.11	0.02	14	71%	0.28	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.05	0.02	15	74%	0.27	4	-0.10	9	67%	-0.04
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hunter Tyson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	9	45%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.15
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	11	37%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.12	-0.01	20	50%	0.08	5	-0.24	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.3	27.4	14.5	32.5	2.4	33.9	139.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +55.0%

OKC -10.7%

DEN +28.6%

OKC -20.5%

OKC -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	13.5	12.8	14.4	111.9	112.7	112.0
season	13.8	13.8		112.6	112.4
opponent	14.6	14.6		110.9	102.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.0	11.7	13.7	14.5	13.5
DEN	13.2	14.4	11.6	12.2	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Wiggins	42	40	0.37	-0.87	1.24	0.05	11	-13	24	11.9	14.5	-2.60	13.9	12.2	1.69
Luguentz Dort	58	59	0.16	-0.66	0.83	0.02	5	-7	12	13.5	13.5	-0.02	13.3	12.3	1.03
Ousmane Dieng	23	25	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.08	5	-7	12	13.9	13.4	0.55	13.0	12.8	0.28
Ajay Mitchell	19	20	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	2	-6	13.5	13.5	0.06	13.1	12.8	0.33
Cason Wallace	48	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	5	-12	13.2	13.7	-0.52	13.0	12.7	0.37
Jalen Williams	81	84	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.44	3	-5	8	13.1	14.4	-1.28	12.6	13.5	-0.88
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	88	90	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.46	3	-5	8	13.6	13.1	0.47	12.9	12.6	0.28
Isaiah Joe	55	55	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.38	-7	5	-12	14.6	12.3	2.34	12.7	13.0	-0.31
Alex Caruso	51	51	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.45	-8	6	-14	13.8	13.2	0.65	11.5	14.0	-2.46
Chet Holmgren	80	80	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.36	-11	9	-20	13.6	13.2	0.37	12.8	12.9	-0.15

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peyton Watson	79	77	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.54	7	-5	12	12.6	13.4	-0.82	13.6	13.2	0.37
Julian Strawther	61	63	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.35	12	-10	22	12.9	12.8	0.09	14.1	12.6	1.46
Christian Braun	85	83	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.46	6	-4	10	12.6	13.7	-1.16	13.3	14.1	-0.79
Nikola Jokic	90	89	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.38	8	-6	14	12.5	14.2	-1.68	13.6	12.8	0.77
Michael Porter Jr.	94	93	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.45	4	-2	6	12.7	13.6	-0.93	13.7	11.9	1.80
Zeke Nnaji	24	24	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.03	-7	9	-16	14.2	12.4	1.82	11.9	13.9	-2.00
Hunter Tyson	43	44	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.08	-6	8	-14	13.4	12.5	0.93	13.3	13.6	-0.30
Russell Westbrook	74	72	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.07	-14	16	-30	13.1	12.3	0.82	13.2	14.1	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.38,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.53,0.69,0.92,0.91,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 76, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.52,0.61,0.89,0.94,1,1	91.7%
POR 102, LAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.21,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.69,0.89,0.84,0.73,1	91.2%
BOS 114, ORL 119	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.61,0.61,0.89,0.99,1,1	91.0%