NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	76		Excitement	6.9 [415]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +15.2%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	5.1 [503]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -42.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dominic McGuire	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	8	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Nick Young	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.07	-0.00	9	59%	0.08	3	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Andray Blatche	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	13	45%	-0.01	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Caron Butler	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	18	47%	0.00	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Gilbert Arenas	-0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.26,-0.31,-0.31,-0.39,-0.43,-0.43,-0.43	-0.25	-0.20	-0.02	20	44%	0.01	12	-0.44	8	50%	-0.08

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.10	0.09	29	58%	0.21	2	-0.06	13	92%	0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	5	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0	0.00	0.05	-0.03	0.01	8	81%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	17	39%	-0.03	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.7	29.2	16.3	27.7	2.4	34.5	136.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +19.9%

MIA +5.6%

WAS -7.4%

MIA +32.0%

WAS -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.3	82.6	97.8	106.0
season	15.7	16.2		102.6	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.3		102.8	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.0	16.5	15.6	14.6	15.5
MIA	17.0	14.1	13.7	18.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Foye	13	13	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-19	24	15.8	15.4	0.35	14.5	16.1	-1.60
Dominic McGuire	15	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-11	8	16.2	15.3	0.88	19.4	15.2	4.15
Fabricio Oberto	31	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-14	14	15.7	15.3	0.41	17.3	15.1	2.19
Nick Young	5	4	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	-11	8	16.6	15.4	1.20	17.2	15.8	1.48
Gilbert Arenas	80	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	-6	-2	15.4	15.9	-0.52	15.8	16.0	-0.19
Andray Blatche	75	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	-3	-8	15.2	16.6	-1.45	16.0	15.2	0.74
Caron Butler	86	86	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	-3	-8	15.2	18.7	-3.42	16.0	12.8	3.21
Brendan Haywood	77	78	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	0	-14	15.5	15.1	0.40	15.1	19.8	-4.66
DeShawn Stevenson	78	78	-0.80	0.30	-1.09	-0.06	-25	11	-36	15.6	14.7	0.89	15.2	19.6	-4.49

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Richardson	65	64	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.24	18	-4	22	14.9	18.1	-3.22	15.3	15.8	-0.51
Jermaine O'Neal	61	61	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.09	18	-4	22	15.3	16.9	-1.66	15.4	15.6	-0.22
Mario Chalmers	66	65	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.05	16	-2	18	15.2	17.4	-2.16	15.3	15.8	-0.49
Dwyane Wade	74	75	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.04	16	-2	18	15.1	18.8	-3.73	15.4	15.8	-0.44
Udonis Haslem	56	55	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	5	4	16.3	15.1	1.28	15.6	15.3	0.33
Dorell Wright	18	17	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	16	-18	18.8	15.1	3.73	15.8	15.4	0.44
Carlos Arroyo	26	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	16	-18	17.4	15.2	2.16	15.8	15.3	0.49
Michael Beasley	63	65	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.12	1	13	-12	16.4	14.7	1.68	15.5	15.4	0.14
Joel Anthony	31	31	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	18	-22	16.9	15.3	1.66	15.6	15.4	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.52,0.61,0.89,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 92, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.84,0.96,0.97,1	92.4%
POR 102, LAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.21,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.69,0.89,0.84,0.73,1	91.8%
OKC 105, HOU 110	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.79,0.95,0.99,1	91.4%