NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	114		Excitement	7.2 [407]		MVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): +37.5%
Orlando Magic	119		Comeback	7.1 [97]		LVP	Jae Crowder (BOS): -8.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21	0.20	0.09	0.08	16	70%	0.21	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Avery Bradley	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.10	0.01	21	49%	0.13	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.05	0.04	-0.00	4	67%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	9	41%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
James Young	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Isaiah Thomas	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.06	-0.10	0.02	16	62%	0.02	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Jae Crowder	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	8	31%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.38	0.38	0.16	0.22	0.01	8	89%	0.48	4	-0.10	11	73%	0.01
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.07	0.00	13	65%	0.18	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.06	0.01	9	76%	0.20	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	11	61%	0.06	0	0.00	9	33%	-0.03
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.06	13	42%	0.05	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	75%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	17	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	27.2	15.6	27.8	1.7	44.2	140.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +63.6%

BOS -5.7%

ORL +3.6%

BOS -8.8%

BOS -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	14.0	14.6	14.9	114.0	117.8	105.1
season	13.9	14.6		104.5	103.6
opponent	14.9	15.0		105.2	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.8	15.0	14.2	12.4	14.0
ORL	14.6	15.0	15.8	13.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	38	39	0.25	-0.75	0.99	-0.05	10	-15	25	14.4	13.8	0.59	14.8	14.5	0.28
Evan Turner	55	56	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.03	1	-6	7	14.5	13.4	1.15	14.8	14.4	0.44
Jared Sullinger	35	35	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-5	5	14.1	14.0	0.17	16.4	13.7	2.72
James Young	1	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-5	5	9.0	14.1	-5.08	3.0	14.7	-11.74
Kelly Olynyk	53	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.42	5	-10	15	13.6	14.5	-0.95	13.6	15.8	-2.21
Marcus Smart	62	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-3	1	13.8	14.5	-0.72	13.5	16.4	-2.83
Avery Bradley	81	82	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.27	-2	-3	1	13.6	15.7	-2.11	14.9	13.4	1.48
Amir Johnson	55	56	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	4	-13	14.0	14.1	-0.11	15.2	14.0	1.21
Isaiah Thomas	68	68	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.32	-14	9	-23	14.1	13.8	0.27	14.2	15.5	-1.28
Jae Crowder	52	51	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.36	-14	9	-23	14.6	13.4	1.14	15.2	14.0	1.20

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Hezonja	65	64	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.18	20	-15	35	15.6	12.9	2.70	15.2	12.0	3.22
Tobias Harris	84	84	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.38	8	-3	11	14.6	14.9	-0.38	13.7	15.9	-2.27
Aaron Gordon	82	78	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.41	7	-2	9	14.9	13.6	1.29	14.4	12.8	1.61
Nikola Vucevic	71	72	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.18	12	-7	19	15.4	12.8	2.55	14.1	13.9	0.19
Evan Fournier	53	53	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.42	1	4	-3	12.4	17.1	-4.65	13.3	14.8	-1.51
Victor Oladipo	60	59	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	5	-5	14.7	14.6	0.11	13.4	15.0	-1.64
Elfrid Payton	29	30	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.00	-6	11	-17	16.7	13.8	2.90	13.9	14.1	-0.23
Jason Smith	44	43	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.08	-9	14	-23	14.2	15.0	-0.82	13.7	14.2	-0.50
Dewayne Dedmon	17	17	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.05	-8	13	-21	11.4	15.3	-3.93	15.2	13.8	1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.61,0.61,0.89,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 108, NOH 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.17,0.2,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.2,0.28,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.54,0.66,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.92,1	91.5%
SAS 87, PHX 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.43,0.44,0.64,0.47,0.61,0.81,0.79,0.95,0.98,1	91.4%
WAS 76, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.52,0.61,0.89,0.94,1,1	90.9%