NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	108		Excitement	8.4 [212]		MVP	Bostjan Nachbar (NOH): +34.9%
New Orleans Hornets	111		Comeback	4.8 [594]		LVP	Rodney Rogers (NOH): -25.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.30	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.3	0.16	0.14	-0.00	12	88%	0.39	2	-0.09	2	0%	-0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.07	0.00	3	71%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Clifford Robinson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	16	56%	0.10	1	-0.07	4	100%	0.05
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	8	56%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Speedy Claxton	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	18	45%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dale Davis	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	2	33%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.13
Jason Richardson	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22	-0.01	-0.20	0.01	18	53%	0.02	3	-0.24	2	100%	0.01

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.19	0.17	0.01	9	106%	0.39	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.11	-0.01	12	57%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.00	3	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.04	0.02	9	70%	0.11	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.07
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	15	45%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	58%	0.00	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.04
George Lynch	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.26	-0.26	-0.04	-0.21	0.01	13	71%	0.07	8	-0.33	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	26.0	16.5	23.3	2.6	43.3	139.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +29.2%

NOH +21.4%

NOH +1.0%

NOH +0.2%

GSW -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	NOH	NBA	GSW	NOH	NBA
this game	15.3	16.2	15.5	116.1	123.3	104.0
season	15.0	16.5		102.3	97.7
opponent	15.7	15.2		105.2	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.2	17.6	15.5	14.2	15.3
NOH	15.8	16.7	15.8	16.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	9	8	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-7	11	15.1	15.3	-0.17	16.4	16.2	0.17
Adonal Foyle	31	31	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-7	11	14.7	15.5	-0.79	16.1	16.3	-0.14
Clifford Robinson	25	23	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.10	-2	-1	-1	17.4	14.5	2.91	16.6	16.1	0.46
Mickael Pietrus	46	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	2	-7	15.1	15.5	-0.40	15.0	17.4	-2.35
Calbert Cheaney	18	17	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	3	-9	17.4	14.8	2.63	15.8	16.3	-0.56
Derek Fisher	75	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.51	7	-10	17	14.1	20.1	-6.00	16.4	15.4	1.07
Jason Richardson	83	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-1	-1	15.0	17.6	-2.61	16.1	16.8	-0.68
Speedy Claxton	71	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	0	-3	16.1	12.7	3.39	16.6	14.9	1.72
Mike Dunleavy	70	70	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.43	-5	2	-7	14.9	16.5	-1.61	16.1	16.6	-0.55
Dale Davis	37	36	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.38	-7	4	-11	15.7	15.0	0.77	17.0	15.7	1.25

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bostjan Nachbar	52	53	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.49	7	-4	11	15.7	16.9	-1.16	15.2	15.4	-0.23
P.J. Brown	66	66	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.34	7	-4	11	16.6	15.1	1.50	15.9	13.7	2.26
J.R. Smith	74	77	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	-1	5	16.2	16.3	-0.11	15.2	15.6	-0.43
Dan Dickau	63	66	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.46	-5	8	-13	15.9	17.0	-1.06	14.1	18.0	-3.90
Casey Jacobsen	45	47	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.05	7	-4	11	16.1	16.4	-0.31	15.9	14.6	1.31
Chris Andersen	37	36	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.19	1	2	-1	16.7	15.9	0.82	16.5	14.5	2.01
Rodney Rogers	75	80	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.19	-2	5	-7	16.0	17.3	-1.25	14.8	18.2	-3.35
George Lynch	38	40	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.07	-4	7	-11	16.9	15.7	1.16	15.4	15.2	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.17,0.2,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.2,0.28,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.54,0.66,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, UTA 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.28,0.46,0.41,0.6,0.78,0.95,0.93,0.83,0.91,1	92.3%
SAS 87, PHX 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.43,0.44,0.64,0.47,0.61,0.81,0.79,0.95,0.98,1	92.2%
WAS 98, MEM 108	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.38,0.31,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.7,0.78,0.57,0.52,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.8,0.93,1,0.99,1	92.0%