NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	111		Excitement	10.6 [9]		MVP	Domantas Sabonis (SAC): +89.5%
Miami Heat	110		Comeback	18.7 [11]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -16.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Domantas Sabonis	0.90	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.9	0.02	0.89	0.01	12	62%	0.97	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0.24	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.37,0.24	0.15	0.09	0.01	18	63%	0.27	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.04
Keegan Murray	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	11	56%	0.08	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Keon Ellis	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	54%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Malik Monk	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	11	55%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McLaughlin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Len	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.06,-0.15	0.06	-0.21	-0.00	21	61%	0.03	4	-0.19	4	75%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.18,0.37,0.31	0.31	0.08	0.23	-0.01	19	55%	0.33	1	-0.02	11	73%	-0.04
Terry Rozier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.12,0.25,0.22	0.22	0.03	0.18	-0.01	6	71%	0.27	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.01	0.00	6	87%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.04
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.2,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	18	66%	0.19	4	-0.10	5	80%	0.06
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.00	5	90%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	15	46%	0.03	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.09
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.05	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	2.4	26.1	15.5	26.4	2.4	36.5	138.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +72.4%

MIA -8.6%

MIA -5.6%

MIA -18.6%

SAC +10.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIA	NBA	SAC	MIA	NBA
this game	14.0	16.6	14.4	119.4	115.8	112.0
season	13.6	14.8		113.9	111.3
opponent	14.4	15.2		110.8	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.4	14.3	13.1	12.4	14.0
MIA	17.1	15.7	18.2	15.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Ellis	54	54	0.69	-0.24	0.93	0.04	22	-21	43	14.7	12.9	1.75	17.9	15.0	2.93
Domantas Sabonis	70	72	0.65	-0.20	0.85	0.41	8	-7	15	14.4	12.8	1.57	16.9	15.8	1.13
Keegan Murray	74	75	0.59	-0.14	0.74	0.48	4	-3	7	14.2	12.9	1.28	16.6	16.8	-0.20
Malik Monk	47	49	0.44	0.01	0.43	0.55	-4	5	-9	13.7	14.3	-0.62	16.2	17.2	-0.99
DeMar DeRozan	72	72	0.25	0.20	0.05	0.31	-2	3	-5	13.9	14.3	-0.41	16.2	18.0	-1.79
De'Aaron Fox	74	75	0.12	0.33	-0.21	0.38	-9	10	-19	13.6	15.4	-1.83	16.3	18.0	-1.78
Trey Lyles	30	33	-0.02	0.47	-0.48	0.01	-1	2	-3	13.7	14.1	-0.35	17.7	16.1	1.66
Alex Len	23	23	-0.20	0.65	-0.86	0.00	-7	8	-15	12.8	14.4	-1.57	15.8	16.9	-1.13
Jordan McLaughlin	21	22	-0.27	0.72	-0.99	-0.09	-6	7	-13	13.8	14.0	-0.20	15.8	16.9	-1.07

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	56	57	0.24	-0.39	0.63	-0.05	10	-12	22	16.9	17.3	-0.42	14.5	14.2	0.31
Alec Burks	24	23	0.20	-0.34	0.54	-0.01	7	-9	16	18.6	16.3	2.32	13.7	14.7	-0.94
Duncan Robinson	26	25	0.17	-0.31	0.48	0.02	5	-7	12	18.0	16.5	1.42	14.0	14.6	-0.65
Terry Rozier	47	46	0.16	-0.31	0.47	0.02	5	-7	12	16.0	18.5	-2.48	14.5	14.3	0.23
Thomas Bryant	23	22	0.00	-0.15	0.15	-0.06	2	-4	6	18.3	16.5	1.77	13.4	14.8	-1.38
Bam Adebayo	57	57	-0.14	-0.00	-0.14	-0.02	-4	2	-6	16.5	18.3	-1.77	14.8	13.4	1.38
Nikola Jovic	24	24	-0.21	0.06	-0.27	0.06	-9	7	-16	17.5	16.8	0.77	13.8	14.7	-0.82
Tyler Herro	53	53	-0.27	0.12	-0.39	-0.06	-7	5	-12	16.8	17.4	-0.56	14.6	14.0	0.55
Haywood Highsmith	15	13	-0.35	0.20	-0.55	0.00	-12	10	-22	16.1	17.2	-1.07	16.0	14.1	1.91
Josh Richardson	40	40	-0.35	0.21	-0.56	-0.12	-8	6	-14	17.8	16.2	1.65	13.8	15.0	-1.12
Pelle Larsson	50	49	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.59	2	-3	5	15.7	17.7	-2.03	14.0	13.9	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.32,0.16,0.22,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 101, POR 97	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.7,0.59,0.48,0.34,0.27,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.41,0.54,0.45,0.28,0	90.1%
SAC 96, LAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.62,0.64,0.9,0.58,0	89.2%
PHI 82, BOS 81	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.33,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.72,0	89.2%