NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	115		Excitement	8.3 [89]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +34.6%
Denver Nuggets	119		Comeback	19.6 [36]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -17.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton II	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	6	92%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moses Moody	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14	0.07	0.08	0.00	10	57%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Trayce Jackson-Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	5	58%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Anderson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.01	0.06	-0.07	-0.00	7	68%	0.14	2	-0.15	5	100%	0.03
Buddy Hield	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandin Podziemski	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	11	57%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Jonathan Kuminga	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.08	0.04	-0.09	0.02	18	50%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Kevon Looney	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	3	50%	-0.02	3	-0.09	4	25%	-0.05
Stephen Curry	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	23	48%	0.02	5	-0.19	4	100%	0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.29,0.35	0.35	0.16	0.20	0.01	24	67%	0.46	4	-0.12	9	78%	0.03
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.13	0.04	6	83%	0.24	2	-0.06	6	67%	0.05
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.03	0.01	14	65%	0.18	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	1	117%	0.11	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	12	44%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	36%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	7	52%	0.01	3	-0.06	7	71%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	3.3	29.6	16.4	31.2	3.5	36.2	146.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +8.4%

DEN +47.0%

GSW -21.5%

DEN +16.1%

DEN +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	13.9	12.9	14.3	107.5	110.2	111.9
season	13.9	13.6		110.6	115.4
opponent	14.5	14.5		113.2	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.0	12.5	11.3	17.7	13.9
DEN	12.7	13.6	12.7	12.3	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trayce Jackson-Davis	48	44	0.44	-0.94	1.38	0.29	5	-9	14	15.0	13.1	1.92	13.4	12.5	0.86
Gary Payton II	28	27	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.30	18	-22	40	15.2	13.5	1.72	16.4	11.7	4.74
Moses Moody	47	46	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.09	1	-5	6	13.8	14.0	-0.24	12.0	13.5	-1.45
Kevon Looney	55	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.05	-3	-1	-2	13.0	15.0	-2.02	13.1	12.6	0.48
Buddy Hield	49	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.00	-6	2	-8	13.9	14.0	-0.05	12.0	13.6	-1.59
Brandin Podziemski	56	58	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.12	-13	9	-22	13.4	14.5	-1.04	12.6	13.1	-0.54
Kyle Anderson	41	40	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-4	4	15.0	13.3	1.71	12.6	13.0	-0.44
Stephen Curry	76	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.56	5	-9	14	13.8	14.3	-0.53	13.4	11.7	1.70
Jonathan Kuminga	64	67	-0.84	0.34	-1.19	-0.64	-7	3	-10	13.7	14.2	-0.48	12.8	12.9	-0.04
Andrew Wiggins	71	73	-1.13	0.63	-1.76	-0.55	-20	16	-36	13.7	14.4	-0.67	12.0	14.6	-2.63

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Braun	83	83	1.10	-0.60	1.71	0.43	23	-19	42	11.9	15.9	-3.94	13.7	14.7	-0.93
Nikola Jokic	90	91	1.04	-0.54	1.59	0.37	23	-19	42	12.5	14.7	-2.24	13.7	15.1	-1.39
Aaron Gordon	76	75	0.79	-0.28	1.07	0.40	13	-9	22	12.4	14.0	-1.63	13.8	14.2	-0.44
Jamal Murray	76	78	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.42	4	0	4	12.9	12.7	0.28	13.6	14.8	-1.16
Michael Porter Jr.	68	66	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	5	-6	13.5	11.7	1.79	14.6	12.9	1.77
Julian Strawther	46	46	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	8	-12	13.1	12.6	0.49	13.3	14.4	-1.12
Zeke Nnaji	13	11	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.10	-11	15	-26	13.4	12.8	0.61	14.1	13.9	0.16
Russell Westbrook	51	48	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.01	-10	14	-24	13.1	12.6	0.43	14.5	13.5	1.01
Peyton Watson	37	37	-0.61	1.11	-1.72	-0.11	-17	21	-38	14.6	12.0	2.61	14.7	13.6	1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.58,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.33,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.53,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 110, CHA 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.82,0.62,0.66,0.48,0.42,0.23,0.26,0.09,0.07,0.15,0.16,0.02,0.16,1	89.7%
ATL 98, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.68,0.75,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.5,0.48,0.34,0.14,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.15,0.31,1	89.0%
PHX 89, TOR 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.48,0.32,0.17,0.06,0.13,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.42,1	88.5%