NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	98		Excitement	8.6 [193]		MVP	John Collins (ATL): +20.0%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	21.0 [156]		LVP	Damion Lee (ATL): -41.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Collins	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.07	0.07	-0.06	14	61%	0.25	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Tyler Dorsey	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.09	0.03	16	53%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Mike Muscala	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	-0.00	10	59%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Taurean Prince	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	45%	0.01	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Miles Plumlee	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.05
DeAndre' Bembry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.05	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Isaiah Taylor	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	0.01	14	54%	-0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Damion Lee	-0.41	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.41	-0.02	-0.44	-0.05	19	39%	-0.41	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.13	-0.01	11	52%	0.18	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.01	13	60%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	-0.03	0.01	14	73%	0.14	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	11	46%	0.04	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	10	40%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.10	-0.01	9	45%	-0.11	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	11	42%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	1.8	26.0	14.5	25.4	2.4	31.3	128.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +13.9%

MIA +4.0%

MIA +19.6%

MIA +11.5%

MIA +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	13.8	14.7	99.0	102.0	107.5
season	14.6	15.1		104.2	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.4		105.8	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.0	14.3	17.9	16.2	15.3
MIA	13.6	14.5	12.1	15.1	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeAndre' Bembry	35	36	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.13	0	-3	3	14.3	15.8	-1.57	14.1	13.7	0.42
Miles Plumlee	69	70	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.11	-2	-1	-1	15.6	14.5	1.16	13.5	14.5	-0.99
Taurean Prince	23	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	2	-7	14.1	15.6	-1.49	13.4	13.9	-0.50
John Collins	68	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.55	5	-8	13	15.5	14.8	0.73	13.4	14.7	-1.24
Mike Muscala	66	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.52	4	-7	11	14.9	16.1	-1.23	14.3	12.9	1.34
Isaiah Taylor	76	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	0	-3	15.8	13.6	2.22	14.3	12.1	2.19
Tyler Dorsey	79	78	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.39	-7	4	-11	15.6	14.0	1.59	13.9	13.7	0.19
Damion Lee	79	78	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.46	-7	4	-11	15.1	16.0	-0.97	13.5	14.9	-1.38

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	55	55	1.22	-0.72	1.94	0.63	20	-17	37	13.3	14.5	-1.23	17.0	13.1	3.89
Tyler Johnson	64	64	1.16	-0.66	1.82	0.66	17	-14	31	12.8	15.7	-2.93	15.6	14.6	1.00
James Johnson	61	60	1.08	-0.58	1.65	0.58	17	-14	31	12.9	15.2	-2.30	16.5	13.4	3.03
Goran Dragic	59	59	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.34	21	-18	39	13.2	14.8	-1.61	16.6	13.3	3.31
Josh Richardson	72	71	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.36	5	-2	7	13.7	14.2	-0.50	15.9	13.6	2.32
Justise Winslow	44	46	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.03	-15	18	-33	14.5	13.3	1.23	13.3	17.0	-3.72
Wayne Ellington	47	48	-0.64	1.14	-1.77	-0.14	-17	20	-37	15.3	12.5	2.78	13.5	16.9	-3.36
Dwyane Wade	49	49	-0.64	1.14	-1.78	-0.23	-14	17	-31	15.2	12.4	2.82	14.0	16.5	-2.44
Kelly Olynyk	44	43	-0.73	1.23	-1.96	-0.17	-19	22	-41	14.5	13.3	1.23	13.4	16.7	-3.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.68,0.75,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.5,0.48,0.34,0.14,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.15,0.31,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 108, DEN 109	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.2,0.1,0.03,0.1,0.06,0.04,1	89.5%
MIL 88, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.73,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.56,0.56,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.31,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.27,1	89.2%
PHI 105, CHA 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.31,0.19,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.27,1	88.8%