NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	121		Excitement	10.6 [10]		MVP	Malik Beasley (DET): +63.8%
Detroit Pistons	123		Comeback	11.7 [22]		LVP	Cade Cunningham (DET): -49.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.44	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.13,0.13,0.44	0.28	0.23	0.07	27	71%	0.48	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.15	0.04	13	65%	0.23	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	9	70%	0.16	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	69%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Josh Richardson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	16	44%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.42	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.42	-0.16	-0.27	-0.00	14	24%	-0.16	3	-0.26	1	100%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.64	0.64	-0.00	0.61	-0.03	17	57%	0.80	4	-0.16	3	67%	-0.01
Jalen Duren	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,0.27	0.27	0.02	0.25	0.01	5	67%	0.30	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.17
Isaiah Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.03	0.02	6	72%	0.12	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.06	-0.03	8	62%	0.14	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	6	69%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.03	15	56%	0.09	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ronald Holland II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jaden Ivey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.09	-0.02	18	50%	-0.05	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Cade Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.18,-0.27,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.49	-0.49	-0.05	-0.46	-0.02	15	57%	0.33	7	-0.82	7	100%	0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	29.8	2.0	25.3	14.7	32.2	2.5	26.4	2.5	20.2	155.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	2.3	15.4	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +47.0%

DET +49.3%

MIA -5.7%

MIA -62.1%

DET +21.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	14.8	14.9	14.4	113.1	115.0	112.0
season	14.8	14.6		111.3	110.0
opponent	14.6	14.4		111.1	110.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	15.6	16.6	13.5	14.9	12.5	14.8
DET	13.8	14.0	15.9	17.9	11.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pelle Larsson	29	27	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.23	-4	2	-6	16.2	14.3	1.83	13.1	15.5	-2.36
Nikola Jovic	5	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-1	0	15.0	14.8	0.17	12.8	15.0	-2.17
Josh Richardson	16	17	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-1	0	14.4	14.9	-0.47	13.4	15.2	-1.81
Kevin Love	19	18	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.11	-6	4	-10	16.9	14.4	2.56	15.4	14.8	0.68
Haywood Highsmith	73	73	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.32	5	-7	12	15.1	14.2	0.89	14.6	15.6	-1.00
Kel'el Ware	20	20	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.10	-3	1	-4	12.5	15.4	-2.88	14.1	15.0	-0.90
Bam Adebayo	87	87	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.34	1	-3	4	15.4	12.5	2.88	15.0	14.1	0.90
Tyler Herro	84	84	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.42	3	-5	8	14.3	16.7	-2.31	15.6	12.3	3.33
Terry Rozier	81	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.31	-2	0	-2	15.0	14.5	0.50	14.8	15.0	-0.21
Duncan Robinson	71	72	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.83	11	-13	24	14.5	15.6	-1.08	14.9	14.8	0.07
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	50	50	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.18	-13	11	-24	14.1	15.5	-1.35	15.7	14.2	1.54

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Simone Fontecchio	51	50	1.28	-0.78	2.06	0.93	12	-10	22	13.6	16.0	-2.43	13.9	15.7	-1.77
Jalen Duren	59	62	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.85	0	2	-2	15.2	14.5	0.72	15.6	13.8	1.87
Cade Cunningham	77	77	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	4	-6	14.4	16.0	-1.60	14.6	15.4	-0.73
Malik Beasley	75	74	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.50	-9	11	-20	14.6	15.5	-0.84	13.9	16.9	-2.95
Ronald Holland II	31	33	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.16	-1	3	-4	15.3	14.7	0.58	15.7	14.5	1.24
Tim Hardaway Jr.	34	36	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.07	6	-4	10	15.6	14.5	1.04	17.0	13.7	3.30
Tobias Harris	68	68	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.15	2	0	2	15.6	13.6	2.03	14.9	14.7	0.15
Isaiah Stewart	48	45	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	-0.41	2	0	2	14.5	15.2	-0.72	13.8	15.6	-1.87
Jaden Ivey	79	78	-0.44	0.94	-1.39	-0.38	-2	4	-6	15.8	12.2	3.61	15.4	13.2	2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.69,0.68,0.59,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.52,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.54,0.45,0.54,0.33,0.23,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 80, BOS 82	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.78,0.73,0.46,0.55,0.46,0.57,0.42,1	88.8%
BOS 88, DET 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.68,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.69,0.74,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.86,0.82,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	88.6%
OKC 81, WAS 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	88.6%