NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	114		Excitement	4.9 [806]		MVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DEN): +18.9%
Denver Nuggets	106		Comeback	1.7 [196]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -17.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Green	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.03	-0.05	17	58%	0.18	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.01
Dillon Brooks	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.03	-0.05	12	67%	0.15	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.06	0.01	-0.03	17	55%	0.13	1	-0.02	13	77%	0.01
Alperen Sengun	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.01	-0.04	14	52%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	60%	0.00
Jeff Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	62%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Jae'Sean Tate	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	3	83%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.01	0.04	5	73%	0.05	2	-0.05	1	0%	0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.02	0.01	9	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Tari Eason	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.06	0.02	6	100%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	9	57%	0.05	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.02
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	17	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.13	0.02	0.12	12	80%	0.08	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	5	20%	-0.07
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.01	0.06	26	39%	-0.11	3	-0.07	7	57%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	2.4	26.6	14.7	32.7	1.8	41.5	147.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +35.6%

HOU +5.3%

HOU +5.5%

HOU +4.3%

DEN -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	15.1	14.5	14.5	116.3	109.3	113.9
season	14.2	15.0		113.2	116.2
opponent	14.6	14.6		111.6	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.6	17.1	13.3	16.2	15.1
DEN	16.5	14.2	16.0	11.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alperen Sengun	68	67	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-2	12	15.0	15.1	-0.07	14.6	14.3	0.32
Aaron Holiday	35	32	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.10	19	-11	30	14.0	15.7	-1.68	15.4	14.0	1.33
Fred VanVleet	80	81	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.04	16	-8	24	15.3	14.1	1.15	14.2	16.1	-1.96
Dillon Brooks	67	67	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.31	2	6	-4	15.0	15.2	-0.21	14.0	15.6	-1.66
Jeff Green	57	56	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	6	-4	14.4	16.0	-1.67	13.5	15.8	-2.24
Jalen Green	71	69	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.52	-10	18	-28	15.7	13.3	2.37	14.9	13.6	1.28
Tari Eason	38	38	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.14	-1	9	-10	13.8	15.8	-1.97	14.1	14.7	-0.67
Jabari Smith Jr.	50	51	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	9	-10	15.7	14.4	1.32	15.1	13.8	1.21
Jae'Sean Tate	25	25	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	6	-4	16.0	14.7	1.27	15.6	14.1	1.45

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeAndre Jordan	23	24	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.14	-2	-6	4	15.7	14.1	1.53	16.9	14.5	2.42
Christian Braun	27	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.24	-10	2	-12	15.4	14.1	1.23	14.8	15.1	-0.32
Michael Porter Jr.	79	78	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.38	10	-18	28	14.1	16.4	-2.34	16.4	9.9	6.47
Peyton Watson	53	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.23	4	-12	16	13.2	16.1	-2.94	15.6	14.4	1.29
Justin Holiday	14	15	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.14	-12	4	-16	13.0	14.7	-1.73	10.7	15.8	-5.18
Reggie Jackson	53	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.34	4	-12	16	12.9	16.4	-3.52	14.9	15.2	-0.23
Jamal Murray	63	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.42	5	-13	18	14.6	14.2	0.38	15.5	14.2	1.32
Julian Strawther	9	9	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.15	-15	7	-22	17.3	14.2	3.14	9.9	15.6	-5.68
Aaron Gordon	44	45	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.03	-12	4	-16	16.1	13.2	2.94	14.4	15.6	-1.29
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	49	50	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	8	-24	15.8	13.1	2.69	14.9	15.2	-0.23
Nikola Jokic	71	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.60	4	-12	16	14.3	14.9	-0.55	14.4	16.8	-2.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.06,0.1,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 115, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.46,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.8%
MIA 121, CHA 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.22,0.3,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.29,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
UTA 93, DAL 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0	94.7%