NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	121		Excitement	4.5 [803]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +15.7%
Charlotte Hornets	111		Comeback	1.2 [942]		LVP	Cody Zeller (CHA): -4.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.03	0.01	8	72%	0.16	0	0.00	9	89%	0.04
Dewayne Dedmon	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	6	82%	0.11	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	13	69%	0.10	3	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Max Strus	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.05	8	44%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.01	10	43%	0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Goran Dragic	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.01	-0.07	18	46%	0.07	3	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Kendrick Nunn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.12	0.00	0.09	13	73%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
KZ Okpala	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	87%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	10	64%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Washington	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	0.01	0.07	13	81%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jalen McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	7	80%	0.04	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Martin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Carey Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Wanamaker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Miles Bridges	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	12	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	0.00	0.09	9	61%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devonte' Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	56%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
LaMelo Ball	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	-0.03	-0.09	14	45%	0.05	5	-0.09	3	67%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.4	28.8	0.7	32.4	1.7	22.3	113.3
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +18.8%

MIA +10.6%

MIA +7.4%

MIA +15.1%

CHA -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	15.2	14.3	14.4	123.5	114.4	111.3
season	14.6	14.2		109.3	109.4
opponent	14.7	14.9		111.8	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.2	13.1	14.4	20.1	15.2
CHA	13.5	14.6	14.4	14.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	59	59	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.03	14	-4	18	14.2	16.9	-2.72	14.4	14.1	0.28
Trevor Ariza	65	65	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	6	-2	15.0	15.6	-0.56	13.8	15.3	-1.56
Goran Dragic	60	60	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-1	12	15.3	15.1	0.25	14.5	14.0	0.44
Bam Adebayo	71	70	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	5	0	15.1	15.6	-0.49	14.1	14.7	-0.61
Duncan Robinson	55	56	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	-2	14	14.9	15.7	-0.87	13.9	14.9	-1.00
Kendrick Nunn	74	73	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.23	-2	12	-14	16.2	12.3	3.90	14.2	14.5	-0.32
Dewayne Dedmon	25	25	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.09	8	2	6	15.6	15.1	0.44	15.2	14.0	1.21
Max Strus	41	38	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.18	-2	12	-14	16.1	14.6	1.44	15.2	13.7	1.46
Andre Iguodala	34	33	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.17	9	1	8	14.7	15.5	-0.76	15.3	13.8	1.57
Gabe Vincent	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	13	-16	16.0	15.2	0.78	9.0	14.4	-5.41
KZ Okpala	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	13	-16	16.0	15.2	0.78	9.0	14.4	-5.41
Precious Achiuwa	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	13	-16	16.0	15.2	0.78	9.0	14.4	-5.41

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Martin	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-19	28	14.6	14.3	0.29	24.4	14.5	9.90
Brad Wanamaker	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.38	13	-23	36	14.0	14.3	-0.33	24.1	14.2	9.87
Vernon Carey Jr.	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-19	28	14.6	14.3	0.29	24.4	14.5	9.90
Cody Martin	15	15	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-8	6	12.8	14.6	-1.77	16.4	15.0	1.38
Jalen McDaniels	47	49	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.25	6	-16	22	15.7	13.0	2.72	17.1	13.4	3.65
P.J. Washington	61	61	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.12	1	-11	12	14.3	14.3	0.03	15.7	14.5	1.12
Cody Zeller	10	10	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.14	-10	0	-10	14.6	14.3	0.34	14.0	15.4	-1.38
Malik Monk	52	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-8	6	14.8	13.7	1.18	16.7	13.6	3.07
Bismack Biyombo	38	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.00	-9	-1	-8	13.6	14.8	-1.23	12.5	16.9	-4.42
LaMelo Ball	66	68	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.20	-17	7	-24	14.0	15.0	-1.08	13.8	18.4	-4.56
Devonte' Graham	51	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	3	-16	13.3	15.4	-2.08	13.7	17.0	-3.33
Terry Rozier	57	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.03	-18	8	-26	14.5	14.0	0.51	13.2	18.0	-4.75
Miles Bridges	64	65	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	7	-24	14.5	13.9	0.59	14.9	15.8	-0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.22,0.3,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.29,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 89, ORL 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.15,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0	95.4%
MIN 108, PHX 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.11,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
UTA 109, PHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%