NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	93		Excitement	4.6 [873]		MVP	Calbert Cheaney (UTA): +7.3%
Dallas Mavericks	81		Comeback	1.2 [232]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -13.1%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	12	64%	0.11	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.03
Scott Padgett	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	54%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	67%	0.00	1	-0.00	10	60%	-0.01
Matt Harpring	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	16	54%	0.08	5	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01
Karl Malone	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.14	-0.01	-0.06	16	37%	-0.07	1	-0.02	11	55%	-0.03
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	2	57%	-0.02	5	-0.08	3	67%	-0.02
John Stockton	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	7	32%	-0.05	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	16	62%	0.10	6	-0.12	8	87%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.03	18	55%	-0.03	0	0.00	15	87%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	21	36%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.4	28.9	15.7	30.9	2.0	37.2	141.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +42.8%

DAL -1.1%

UTA +11.8%

DAL -8.5%

UTA +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DAL	NBA	UTA	DAL	NBA
this game	17.8	14.1	15.5	104.5	88.0	101.6
season	16.3	15.1		103.1	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.3		102.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.7	15.8	16.8	23.3	17.8
DAL	15.0	14.8	14.6	11.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Ostertag	69	72	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.09	21	-9	30	16.8	21.1	-4.32	14.7	11.8	2.92
Calbert Cheaney	59	63	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	-2	16	16.3	20.7	-4.38	14.9	12.4	2.49
Karl Malone	76	79	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.17	8	4	4	17.5	19.5	-2.04	14.0	14.7	-0.70
Andrei Kirilenko	51	52	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.13	6	6	0	18.8	16.5	2.26	13.2	15.3	-2.15
Mark Jackson	30	31	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.05	8	4	4	18.5	17.5	1.01	15.0	13.6	1.33
Matt Harpring	68	69	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.15	4	8	-4	18.4	16.0	2.35	14.1	14.1	-0.06
John Stockton	56	57	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	6	0	17.5	18.2	-0.71	14.0	14.2	-0.18
Tony Massenburg	15	16	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	8	-4	18.2	17.7	0.48	13.9	14.1	-0.26
Carlos Arroyo	3	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	14	-16	16.0	17.9	-1.86	8.2	14.4	-6.10
Scott Padgett	18	17	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.22	-9	21	-30	22.4	16.6	5.82	12.1	14.5	-2.49

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walt Williams	36	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.12	2	-14	16	13.7	14.4	-0.69	17.2	18.2	-0.92
Avery Johnson	9	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-8	4	17.1	13.8	3.35	15.9	18.0	-2.12
Raef LaFrentz	38	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-7	2	14.9	13.5	1.33	15.8	19.1	-3.29
Raja Bell	7	6	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.11	-8	-4	-4	15.7	14.0	1.76	13.8	18.1	-4.25
Adrian Griffin	26	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	-4	-4	15.0	13.7	1.33	16.1	18.5	-2.39
Steve Nash	76	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-10	8	13.5	17.0	-3.53	18.3	15.6	2.65
Shawn Bradley	50	49	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-7	2	12.9	15.5	-2.51	19.1	16.2	2.95
Michael Finley	84	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	-5	-2	14.1	13.9	0.23	18.1	15.1	2.94
Nick Van Exel	42	42	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	-1	-10	14.7	13.6	1.07	19.0	16.7	2.37
Dirk Nowitzki	92	89	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	0	-12	14.1	0.0	14.09	17.8	0.0	17.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 105, UTA 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
HOU 113, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.19,0.22,0.28,0.31,0.2,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
ATL 94, DET 82	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.27,0.31,0.2,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.09,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%