NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	100		Excitement	7.8 [318]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +13.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	92		Comeback	4.1 [654]		LVP	Scoot Henderson (POR): -34.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,0.01,0.07,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.02	0.07	-0.05	22	49%	0.22	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Trayce Jackson-Davis	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.00	4	83%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Jonathan Kuminga	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	11	73%	0.17	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Kevon Looney	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.04	-0.02	6	64%	0.15	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.04
Moses Moody	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.07	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.05
Brandin Podziemski	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	9	47%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	12	58%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Dario Saric	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	44%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jabari Walker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	14	53%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Kris Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.06	0.01	12	47%	0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Deandre Ayton	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.04	-0.01	24	51%	0.01	1	0.01	1	100%	0.00
Ashton Hagans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Duop Reath	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	10	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Rayan Rupert	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Justin Minaya	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	7	21%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scoot Henderson	0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.22,-0.32,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.34	-0.19	-0.18	-0.03	20	42%	-0.03	9	-0.31	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	24.5	14.7	27.5	2.5	29.4	124.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +78.4%

POR -2.8%

POR -25.0%

GSW +1.1%

POR -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	POR	NBA	GSW	POR	NBA
this game	14.8	16.5	14.5	108.7	100.0	113.9
season	14.3	14.8		116.2	106.9
opponent	14.5	14.4		116.2	114.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.8	14.4	15.3	17.3	14.8
POR	15.4	16.9	15.3	18.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevon Looney	38	39	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.24	19	-11	30	15.7	14.2	1.55	16.8	16.3	0.51
Stephen Curry	70	68	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.34	7	1	6	15.1	14.0	1.09	16.6	16.1	0.53
Brandin Podziemski	62	62	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.14	13	-5	18	15.1	14.3	0.73	16.6	16.3	0.26
Jonathan Kuminga	67	67	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.20	8	0	8	14.3	16.2	-1.94	16.6	16.3	0.27
Chris Paul	60	61	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	5	-2	14.7	15.0	-0.22	16.9	15.7	1.11
Moses Moody	40	43	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	0	8	14.5	15.1	-0.62	15.7	17.2	-1.55
Dario Saric	10	9	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	4	0	15.4	14.8	0.64	18.7	16.2	2.43
Andrew Wiggins	59	58	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.11	-11	19	-30	15.1	14.4	0.72	16.0	17.3	-1.25
Trayce Jackson-Davis	54	53	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	0.03	-11	19	-30	14.2	15.7	-1.55	16.3	16.8	-0.51

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rayan Rupert	58	56	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.06	12	-20	32	15.6	18.0	-2.46	14.6	15.2	-0.65
Ashton Hagans	27	26	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.07	4	-12	16	16.1	16.6	-0.47	14.8	14.8	-0.03
Duop Reath	28	28	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.11	0	-8	8	16.2	16.6	-0.43	14.7	14.9	-0.11
Kris Murray	86	86	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-5	2	16.3	19.7	-3.41	15.1	10.5	4.63
Deandre Ayton	64	64	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.37	-8	0	-8	16.6	16.2	0.43	14.9	14.7	0.11
Scoot Henderson	74	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.34	-11	3	-14	16.7	15.4	1.35	14.7	15.2	-0.50
Jabari Walker	68	70	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.30	-14	6	-20	16.7	15.8	0.87	14.9	14.6	0.31
Justin Minaya	55	55	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.19	-20	12	-32	17.3	15.2	2.07	14.7	15.1	-0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.56,0.46,0.52,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.59,0.46,0.39,0.25,0.03,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 138, POR 129	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.72,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.47,0.58,0.66,0.85,0.8,0.58,0.53,0.4,0.27,0.24,0.16,0,0,0	92.7%
MIN 112, UTA 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.35,0.31,0.42,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.67,0.68,0.53,0.46,0.34,0.04,0,0,0,0	92.2%
WAS 99, POR 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.59,0.4,0.33,0.11,0.04,0,0,0	91.7%