NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	115		Excitement	4.7 [850]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +19.3%
Indiana Pacers	117		Comeback	1.1 [902]		LVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): -8.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.19	0.14	0.11	0.06	12	70%	0.21	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Caleb Martin	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.03	10	80%	0.18	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Nikola Jovic	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.16	-0.02	0.03	10	75%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.14	0.01	0.07	16	61%	0.08	0	0.00	12	100%	0.04
Bam Adebayo	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	18	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	2	60%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.04	0.02	12	69%	0.17	0	0.00	8	100%	0.05
Aaron Nesmith	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.00	12	55%	0.17	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.06
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.01	-0.01	7	93%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.00	0.01	14	79%	0.15	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	15	53%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.09	-0.03	0.07	-0.05	10	50%	0.13	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.4	26.5	14.8	27.2	2.7	48.4	147.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +38.6%

IND +4.6%

IND +3.2%

IND +2.9%

IND +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	14.3	15.9	14.5	121.1	121.9	113.9
season	14.9	13.8		112.3	120.0
opponent	14.7	14.8		117.4	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	14.5	13.5	13.2	14.3
IND	14.2	14.8	17.8	16.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jovic	49	48	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.41	14	-16	30	13.0	15.6	-2.55	17.3	14.4	2.87
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	25	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-2	2	14.5	14.2	0.33	15.9	15.9	0.01
Terry Rozier	44	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	1	-4	14.2	14.4	-0.17	15.5	16.2	-0.77
Kevin Love	39	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.32	4	-6	10	14.0	14.5	-0.51	15.6	16.0	-0.39
Duncan Robinson	26	25	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.00	-7	5	-12	14.2	14.3	-0.16	14.0	16.5	-2.54
Bam Adebayo	73	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.50	7	-9	16	14.3	14.1	0.18	16.1	15.1	0.96
Caleb Martin	69	71	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.44	5	-7	12	14.3	14.2	0.16	16.5	14.0	2.54
Tyler Herro	60	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.39	0	-2	2	14.4	14.0	0.43	16.0	15.7	0.31
Haywood Highsmith	36	37	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	11	-24	15.7	13.4	2.38	15.4	16.2	-0.81
Jimmy Butler	78	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	4	-10	14.0	15.5	-1.53	15.6	17.2	-1.66

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. McConnell	54	51	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.36	7	-5	12	15.0	17.0	-2.08	14.8	13.6	1.23
Aaron Nesmith	80	79	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.45	-2	4	-6	15.9	15.7	0.23	14.2	14.7	-0.50
Tyrese Haliburton	65	65	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	-1	4	16.2	15.3	0.91	14.3	14.3	0.01
Myles Turner	75	74	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.44	-4	6	-10	15.9	15.8	0.14	14.3	14.2	0.11
Pascal Siakam	65	66	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.36	-2	4	-6	15.9	15.8	0.15	13.8	15.4	-1.64
Ben Sheppard	39	38	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	0	2	16.5	15.4	1.12	14.6	14.0	0.60
Obi Toppin	31	29	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	-2	6	15.8	15.9	-0.15	15.4	13.8	1.64
Jalen Smith	21	21	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.00	6	-4	10	15.8	15.9	-0.14	14.2	14.3	-0.11
Andrew Nembhard	50	52	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	6	-10	15.9	15.8	0.05	13.6	15.1	-1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.97,0.93,0.9,0.81,0.71,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 119, HOU 123	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.88,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.77,0.79,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.98,1	95.2%
SAC 104, PHX 112	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.89,0.79,0.91,0.98,1	94.9%
BOS 98, MIA 104	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.9,0.69,0.64,0.95,0.99,1	94.7%