NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	98		Excitement	5.1 [837]		MVP	Dion Waiters (MIA): +25.5%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.3 [517]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -12.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05	0.03	-0.00	-0.02	10	70%	0.09	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.02	9	54%	0.03	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Terry Rozier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	8	44%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Shane Larkin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0	0.11	-0.06	0.04	11	67%	0.09	1	-0.08	5	100%	0.02
Daniel Theis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	75%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Semi Ojeleye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	9	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyrie Irving	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	0.00	0.07	22	48%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Al Horford	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	10	32%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.09

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.28,0.25,0.26	0.26	0.07	0.17	-0.02	24	54%	0.27	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.01	9	73%	0.11	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	17	61%	0.13	3	-0.05	10	90%	0.04
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	60%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	80%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	57%	0.04	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.5	2.4	26.4	14.7	27.3	2.5	38.5	132.3
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.3%

MIA +13.2%

BOS -2.5%

BOS -5.0%

MIA +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	13.5	16.1	14.7	101.0	106.1	107.5
season	15.1	15.1		106.4	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.7		105.8	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.4	13.1	15.3	11.2	13.5
MIA	16.2	14.1	16.0	18.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Semi Ojeleye	10	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-4	2	17.2	13.0	4.18	13.8	16.3	-2.53
Aron Baynes	25	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	-3	0	14.8	13.0	1.81	14.8	16.5	-1.71
Jaylen Brown	62	63	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-8	10	13.2	13.9	-0.72	17.0	14.4	2.60
Shane Larkin	11	12	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	0	-6	14.9	13.3	1.64	17.0	15.9	1.06
Terry Rozier	37	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-7	8	12.1	14.3	-2.26	14.8	16.9	-2.15
Al Horford	70	71	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.45	8	-14	22	12.8	15.1	-2.30	16.9	13.9	3.01
Jayson Tatum	69	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.38	4	-10	14	13.2	14.0	-0.82	16.3	15.5	0.85
Daniel Theis	20	20	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.14	-14	8	-22	15.7	12.9	2.83	14.3	16.5	-2.23
Marcus Morris	43	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	6	-18	13.6	13.4	0.19	15.8	16.3	-0.46
Marcus Smart	68	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-2	-2	13.1	14.2	-1.12	16.5	15.0	1.45
Kyrie Irving	70	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.35	-4	-2	-2	13.7	12.9	0.78	15.7	16.9	-1.19

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	41	39	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.04	17	-11	28	14.9	16.9	-2.05	14.5	12.7	1.77
James Johnson	41	39	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	-3	12	16.0	16.1	-0.12	14.1	13.0	1.04
Wayne Ellington	45	44	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	-2	10	16.3	15.9	0.40	13.9	13.1	0.83
Dion Waiters	74	73	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.26	3	3	0	16.3	15.5	0.81	12.7	15.6	-2.89
Josh Richardson	60	63	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.18	5	1	4	15.3	17.3	-1.95	14.2	12.1	2.15
Goran Dragic	67	68	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	6	-6	15.7	17.0	-1.31	13.5	13.4	0.06
Tyler Johnson	56	54	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	5	-4	17.3	14.4	2.96	12.4	14.8	-2.36
Justise Winslow	52	52	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.23	-4	10	-14	15.8	16.4	-0.60	13.5	13.4	0.10
Hassan Whiteside	57	58	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.36	-11	17	-28	16.9	14.9	2.05	12.7	14.5	-1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.9,0.69,0.64,0.95,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 97, UTA 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.9,0.85,0.98,1,1	94.0%
MIL 95, POR 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.99,1	94.0%
MIL 111, HOU 117	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.73,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.83,0.79,0.85,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.76,0.78,0.91,0.96,1	93.6%