NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	118		Excitement	7.8 [317]		MVP	Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL): +28.1%
Atlanta Hawks	120		Comeback	73.1 [5]		LVP	Clint Capela (ATL): -12.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0.22	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.11,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.22	0.15	0.10	0.03	26	59%	0.32	2	-0.10	11	82%	0.02
Jaylen Brown	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.29,0.15	0.05	0.06	-0.03	22	50%	0.19	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.05
Svi Mykhailiuk	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.06	0.02	2	150%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	12	58%	0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Jaden Springer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	70%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Oshae Brissett	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.06	0.03	14	57%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Sam Hauser	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	10	30%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.11	0.23	0.06	15	67%	0.34	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
De'Andre Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.08,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.08	0.04	14	75%	0.27	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.07
Garrison Mathews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.02	2	150%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruno Fernando	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.07	0.01	7	81%	0.13	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Vit Krejci	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	11	73%	0.16	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.06	0.01	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dylan Windler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.04	-0.06	22	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.14
Trent Forrest	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.04	-0.08	0.07	10	58%	-0.08	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	25.5	15.5	23.4	2.6	35.0	130.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +40.7%

BOS -3.1%

ATL +19.1%

BOS -6.1%

BOS -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	16.3	14.0	14.5	124.2	126.3	113.9
season	14.9	14.2		120.7	115.7
opponent	14.3	14.7		118.0	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.8	14.4	16.6	20.2	16.3
ATL	14.5	14.4	11.7	15.8	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oshae Brissett	22	23	0.29	-0.79	1.07	-0.06	12	-14	26	14.7	16.8	-2.08	13.7	14.1	-0.33
Jaden Springer	12	13	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	1	-4	20.2	15.8	4.49	17.1	13.5	3.58
Luke Kornet	18	18	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.27	4	-6	10	15.9	16.4	-0.47	15.5	13.6	1.86
Jaylen Brown	75	76	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	0	-2	16.2	16.8	-0.66	13.5	15.8	-2.32
Sam Hauser	56	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	5	-12	16.4	16.2	0.25	13.6	14.6	-1.01
Al Horford	71	71	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	3	-8	16.4	16.2	0.16	13.5	15.5	-2.08
Svi Mykhailiuk	20	19	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-2	2	16.8	16.2	0.66	15.8	13.5	2.32
Kristaps Porzingis	69	68	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.22	-7	5	-12	16.4	16.0	0.40	13.9	14.2	-0.27
Jayson Tatum	77	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.55	3	-5	8	16.1	17.4	-1.31	14.4	12.3	2.11
Payton Pritchard	55	56	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.50	-5	3	-8	16.3	16.4	-0.08	13.5	14.7	-1.15

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	31	31	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.73	3	-1	4	16.2	12.9	3.32	17.4	15.8	1.62
Bogdan Bogdanovic	77	76	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.42	7	-5	12	13.8	14.8	-1.04	16.7	14.8	1.86
Garrison Mathews	35	36	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	-1	4	13.8	14.1	-0.35	17.3	15.7	1.53
Clint Capela	59	59	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.19	6	-4	10	13.7	14.4	-0.69	16.0	16.9	-0.86
Dejounte Murray	81	81	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.17	6	-4	10	13.7	15.6	-1.94	16.5	15.4	1.14
Trent Forrest	14	14	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.27	-4	6	-10	15.6	13.7	1.94	15.4	16.5	-1.14
De'Andre Hunter	69	69	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	0	2	13.9	14.2	-0.28	16.0	17.1	-1.09
Bruno Fernando	36	36	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.24	-4	6	-10	14.4	13.7	0.69	16.9	16.0	0.86
Dylan Windler	4	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.01	-4	6	-10	17.0	13.9	3.14	11.2	16.5	-5.30
Vit Krejci	69	69	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	-0.21	-5	7	-12	13.2	16.0	-2.82	15.5	18.5	-2.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.3,0.28,0.21,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.26,0.33,0.4,0.47,0.68,0.73,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.28,0.23,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 105, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.43,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.28,0.2,0.28,0.32,0.63,1	91.6%
CHI 113, IND 117	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.18,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.74,0.65,0.46,0.25,0.22,0.34,0.69,1	90.7%
NOK 91, POR 92	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.25,0.16,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.32,0.35,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.23,0.58,1	89.9%