NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	109		Excitement	9.4 [110]		MVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): +41.5%
Orlando Magic	107		Comeback	2.6 [347]		LVP	Malik Monk (SAC): -26.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0.42	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.18,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.42	0.11	0.27	-0.03	22	58%	0.52	2	-0.10	9	89%	0.13
Keegan Murray	0.40	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.22	0.20	0.02	12	92%	0.40	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Ellis	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.1	0.14	0.02	0.07	12	73%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Domantas Sabonis	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	14	62%	0.13	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Chris Duarte	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	10	37%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Alex Len	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Malik Monk	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.19	-0.07	-0.00	11	0%	-0.24	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.25	0.17	0.01	13	86%	0.41	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Franz Wagner	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.03	-0.00	14	60%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Caleb Houstan	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	10	37%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Markelle Fultz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	21%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Paolo Banchero	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.10	0.01	18	54%	0.02	4	-0.13	5	100%	0.03
Cole Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.15	-0.15	0.03	-0.16	0.02	15	53%	-0.07	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	28.6	14.7	28.2	2.4	36.0	137.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +25.7%

SAC +22.2%

ORL -19.8%

SAC +20.0%

SAC +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	14.6	15.4	14.5	113.5	111.5	113.9
season	14.0	15.1		115.6	111.8
opponent	14.4	14.8		109.4	113.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.6	15.0	14.6	16.2	14.6
ORL	16.2	15.6	13.1	17.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keegan Murray	75	77	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.28	21	-19	40	13.7	17.8	-4.11	16.2	12.2	4.04
De'Aaron Fox	75	72	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.48	14	-12	26	14.2	15.7	-1.43	15.7	14.8	0.88
Keon Ellis	73	73	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.34	18	-16	34	14.4	15.1	-0.70	16.0	13.7	2.30
Domantas Sabonis	75	77	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.45	9	-7	16	15.0	13.0	2.05	15.7	14.5	1.15
Harrison Barnes	71	71	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.47	8	-6	14	15.0	13.2	1.88	16.0	14.0	2.01
Alex Len	21	19	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.06	-7	9	-16	13.0	15.0	-2.05	14.5	15.7	-1.15
Davion Mitchell	21	24	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	-0.04	-12	14	-26	15.7	14.2	1.43	14.8	15.7	-0.88
Chris Duarte	23	21	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	0.12	-19	21	-40	14.9	14.5	0.42	12.2	16.4	-4.17
Malik Monk	46	46	-0.61	1.11	-1.72	0.04	-22	24	-46	15.4	13.8	1.57	13.9	16.9	-2.95

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonathan Isaac	47	45	0.53	-1.03	1.56	-0.23	26	-28	54	14.2	16.7	-2.46	14.8	14.4	0.42
Markelle Fultz	40	38	0.45	-0.95	1.39	-0.17	21	-23	44	14.3	16.3	-2.01	15.1	14.2	0.96
Joe Ingles	27	26	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.03	6	-8	14	14.9	15.7	-0.73	14.0	14.8	-0.81
Cole Anthony	60	63	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.36	9	-11	20	14.7	16.6	-1.86	14.7	14.4	0.29
Caleb Houstan	22	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.11	-7	5	-12	16.8	15.0	1.78	14.3	14.6	-0.36
Moritz Wagner	26	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.22	3	-5	8	15.4	15.5	-0.09	15.4	14.2	1.14
Wendell Carter Jr.	44	46	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.02	-20	18	-38	16.6	14.5	2.07	14.0	15.1	-1.10
Jalen Suggs	70	70	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.49	-8	6	-14	15.5	15.4	0.03	14.8	14.0	0.81
Paolo Banchero	75	73	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.45	-13	11	-24	15.6	14.9	0.70	14.5	14.8	-0.36
Franz Wagner	69	69	-1.18	0.68	-1.86	-0.39	-27	25	-52	16.5	12.8	3.71	14.2	15.4	-1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.39,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.44,0.42,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.72,0.53,0.55,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 107, GSW 101	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.43,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.17,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.05,0	92.0%
MIA 98, WAS 88	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.4,0.31,0.05,0.03,0,0	90.8%
MEM 98, SAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.3,0.35,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.43,0.47,0.23,0.31,0.36,0.22,0.15,0	90.3%