NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	7.0 [428]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +17.6%
Washington Wizards	88		Comeback	2.2 [548]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -13.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.03	-0.01	11	85%	0.28	2	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Alonzo Mourning	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.03	0.01	16	62%	0.09	0	0.00	13	92%	0.05
Dan Majerle	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.02	0.08	-0.02	5	30%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	7	53%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	9	42%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	57%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	15	48%	-0.00	4	-0.13	1	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	5	90%	0.18	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	11	55%	0.00	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.05
Gerard King	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.07	-0.12	-0.00	15	67%	0.10	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.01	-0.04	12	38%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	11	46%	0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	29.4	15.6	24.3	2.5	29.5	128.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.5%

MIA +14.8%

WAS -24.7%

MIA +27.1%

MIA +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	15.4	16.5	15.2	107.7	97.8	101.7
season	15.7	15.5		101.2	101.1
opponent	14.8	15.9		104.4	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.2	13.3	15.3	20.9	15.4
WAS	15.1	18.0	16.0	16.9	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	71	70	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.26	15	-5	20	15.4	15.3	0.00	16.6	16.2	0.36
Dan Majerle	69	70	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.19	16	-6	22	15.5	14.8	0.76	16.4	16.6	-0.16
Tim Hardaway	62	62	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.21	15	-5	20	16.0	13.9	2.19	16.6	16.2	0.43
Jamal Mashburn	72	69	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-2	14	15.4	15.1	0.38	16.7	15.8	0.87
P.J. Brown	50	51	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.15	15	-5	20	15.6	15.1	0.51	15.8	17.4	-1.60
Duane Causwell	18	17	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.05	-3	13	-16	15.7	15.3	0.39	16.6	16.4	0.21
Anthony Carter	29	28	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.01	-5	15	-20	13.9	16.0	-2.19	16.2	16.6	-0.43
Voshon Lenard	43	42	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.01	-6	16	-22	14.5	16.1	-1.55	16.3	16.6	-0.36
Clar. Weatherspoon	41	41	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.02	-9	19	-28	15.3	15.4	-0.02	17.0	16.0	1.05

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Austin	27	27	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.05	9	-19	28	15.9	16.7	-0.89	16.4	14.9	1.55
Richard Hamilton	42	43	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.04	8	-18	26	17.2	15.8	1.38	14.7	15.9	-1.15
Chris Whitney	29	30	0.19	-0.69	0.89	0.05	5	-15	20	16.1	16.7	-0.55	15.6	15.2	0.37
Aaron Williams	34	34	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.02	2	-12	14	16.6	16.4	0.22	15.6	15.2	0.33
Gerard King	23	24	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.06	-11	1	-12	16.7	16.4	0.23	14.4	15.7	-1.33
Tracy Murray	62	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-10	10	16.4	16.7	-0.29	15.1	16.0	-0.94
Mitch Richmond	53	52	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.16	-17	7	-24	15.9	17.3	-1.35	16.7	13.6	3.04
Juwan Howard	59	59	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.22	-15	5	-20	16.7	16.1	0.63	15.9	14.3	1.65
Rod Strickland	61	61	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.25	-15	5	-20	16.7	16.1	0.55	15.2	15.6	-0.37
Jahidi White	60	62	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.26	-16	6	-22	16.5	16.5	-0.03	14.2	17.8	-3.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.4,0.31,0.05,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 107, GSW 101	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.43,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.17,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.05,0	93.4%
MIA 99, ORL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.52,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.35,0.24,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.28,0.1,0.02,0,0.01,0	91.9%
BKN 111, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.43,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.44,0.37,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.02,0	91.9%