NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	6.8 [452]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +33.8%
Orlando Magic	92		Comeback	1.6 [566]		LVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): -19.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.17,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.18	0.17	0.01	20	76%	0.42	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
Mario Chalmers	0.28	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.28	0.10	0.15	-0.03	16	67%	0.35	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
James Ennis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.05	-0.05	0.03	6	71%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Josh McRoberts	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.04	6	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	42%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Shabazz Napier	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	-0.00	8	60%	0.04	4	-0.17	4	50%	-0.06

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	0.03	0.08	24	56%	0.08	0	0.00	11	82%	0.04
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	64%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	54%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	3	70%	0.12	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	11	52%	0.06	3	-0.10	5	60%	-0.01
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.10	0.01	6	56%	-0.02	3	-0.13	4	25%	-0.09
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	0.01	15	37%	-0.09	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.0	33.2	16.7	22.3	2.5	39.5	139.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +69.7%

ORL -8.8%

ORL -9.8%

ORL -0.3%

ORL -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	17.6	15.2	15.1	112.5	104.5	104.2
season	16.0	14.9		102.4	100.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.9	16.3	18.4	17.7	17.6
ORL	18.1	15.0	14.4	13.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	68	69	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.25	14	-7	21	16.9	19.9	-3.03	16.1	11.8	4.24
Mario Chalmers	62	61	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	-2	11	17.9	16.7	1.23	14.8	16.0	-1.14
Shawne Williams	66	65	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.25	9	-2	11	17.2	18.6	-1.38	15.5	14.1	1.41
Shannon Brown	67	66	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	-3	13	17.2	18.6	-1.40	15.8	13.2	2.59
Luol Deng	61	63	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	1	5	16.9	19.0	-2.03	15.2	15.1	0.07
James Ennis	24	23	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	6	-5	18.5	17.2	1.24	14.5	15.4	-0.94
Shabazz Napier	50	51	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.09	-5	12	-17	17.9	17.1	0.75	15.0	15.4	-0.31
Chris Andersen	32	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	10	-13	18.7	16.9	1.87	12.9	16.5	-3.62
Josh McRoberts	10	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	13	-19	20.7	17.2	3.55	13.8	15.3	-1.55

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Harkless	34	33	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.07	7	-14	21	14.8	15.4	-0.66	18.5	17.0	1.48
Ben Gordon	35	32	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.05	11	-18	29	13.1	16.5	-3.41	18.6	17.0	1.63
Dewayne Dedmon	17	17	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-7	7	13.7	15.5	-1.82	16.6	17.8	-1.20
Elfrid Payton	41	42	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.34	1	-8	9	13.1	17.0	-3.88	18.8	16.4	2.44
Channing Frye	57	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-7	7	15.6	14.4	1.16	18.0	16.5	1.55
Nikola Vucevic	70	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.29	-8	1	-9	15.1	15.3	-0.20	16.8	20.3	-3.45
Evan Fournier	69	68	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.21	-12	5	-17	15.4	14.3	1.09	17.2	18.7	-1.48
Willie Green	56	56	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.11	-18	11	-29	16.8	12.3	4.44	16.7	19.1	-2.46
Victor Oladipo	61	62	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.25	-16	9	-25	16.3	12.6	3.67	17.5	17.8	-0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.52,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.35,0.24,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.28,0.1,0.02,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 110, CHA 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.17,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.0%
LAC 96, MIL 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.5,0.43,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.26,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.21,0.35,0.22,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.08,0	93.0%
SAS 95, SAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.52,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.04,0,0,0	92.7%