NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	107		Excitement	7.9 [227]		MVP	Patty Mills (SAS): +27.7%
Golden State Warriors	101		Comeback	2.2 [565]		LVP	Cory Joseph (SAS): -27.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0.28	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.28	0.12	0.17	0.01	25	65%	0.38	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.09	0.00	19	55%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Byars	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	9	36%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Tiago Splitter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	2	125%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
James Anderson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	17	49%	0.04	3	-0.10	5	80%	-0.01
Cory Joseph	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.28	-0.18	-0.11	-0.01	12	15%	-0.20	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.06

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Wright	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.19	0.06	0.03	14	78%	0.25	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Mickell Gladness	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	10	70%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Jenkins	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	13	62%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	16	47%	0.04	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	11	48%	0.02	6	-0.18	1	100%	0.01
Jeremy Tyler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.11	-0.16	-0.04	19	39%	-0.04	5	-0.19	3	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	3.4	27.7	18.0	26.1	3.5	27.4	129.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +2.4%

SAS +0.4%

SAS +28.8%

SAS +19.2%

GSW -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	15.0	14.2	15.6	109.2	102.0	102.8
season	15.3	15.2		109.1	103.6
opponent	15.4	15.2		106.8	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.4	13.9	14.4	19.4	15.0
GSW	12.8	13.3	14.4	17.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Anderson	81	82	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.22	18	-12	30	14.7	16.5	-1.85	14.8	11.5	3.28
Patty Mills	87	86	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	-4	14	15.2	13.1	2.15	14.5	12.5	2.05
DeJuan Blair	76	78	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.30	8	-2	10	15.3	14.0	1.29	14.8	12.0	2.79
Cory Joseph	75	77	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.46	-5	11	-16	15.8	12.4	3.35	14.3	14.0	0.31
Boris Diaw	43	44	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	-4	14	13.3	16.3	-2.94	14.0	14.4	-0.35
Derrick Byars	65	65	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.35	-5	11	-16	15.8	13.4	2.47	14.2	14.4	-0.26
Danny Green	19	19	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.04	4	2	2	12.2	15.7	-3.46	12.7	14.6	-1.86
Tiago Splitter	16	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.04	-2	8	-10	15.0	15.0	-0.00	12.1	14.7	-2.53
Matt Bonner	28	28	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.04	-8	14	-22	14.8	15.1	-0.30	12.7	14.9	-2.18

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Jenkins	57	55	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-7	8	13.5	15.3	-1.85	14.4	15.7	-1.33
Klay Thompson	65	63	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-3	0	13.7	15.4	-1.69	14.1	16.6	-2.44
Mikki Moore	57	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.30	-3	-3	0	14.5	13.8	0.71	15.7	13.9	1.82
Chris Wright	95	95	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-4	2	14.2	16.0	-1.83	15.2	7.3	7.91
Dominic McGuire	53	53	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-2	-2	14.7	13.7	0.98	15.5	14.4	1.11
Jeremy Tyler	89	88	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.27	-11	5	-16	14.5	12.0	2.49	14.9	15.8	-0.89
Mickell Gladness	79	78	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.37	-8	2	-10	14.6	12.9	1.62	15.0	14.9	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.43,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.17,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 98, WAS 88	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.4,0.31,0.05,0.03,0,0	93.4%
CHA 93, WAS 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.33,0.2,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	92.3%
MIA 99, ORL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.52,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.35,0.24,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.28,0.1,0.02,0,0.01,0	92.2%