NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	119		Excitement	6.8 [461]		MVP	Moritz Wagner (ORL): +18.8%
Washington Wizards	109		Comeback	10.3 [332]		LVP	Tyus Jones (WAS): -10.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Moritz Wagner	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.19	0.12	0.13	0.06	7	94%	0.23	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Franz Wagner	0.14	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.19	0.02	0.06	15	74%	0.15	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.01
Jalen Suggs	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.08	0.05	12	73%	0.17	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Black	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.04	0.01	5	80%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Houstan	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	12	44%	0.04	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	75%	0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Markelle Fultz	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Ingles	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.03	0.06	19	58%	0.12	4	-0.18	5	80%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richaun Holmes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	6	86%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Johnny Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Landry Shamet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.03	13	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eugene Omoruyi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bilal Coulibaly	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	-0.01	7	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jordan Poole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.08	-0.07	0.06	19	62%	0.04	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.12	-0.12	0.09	19	61%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.04
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	8	44%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	29.6	14.7	27.2	2.5	34.4	134.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +68.3%

ORL +3.2%

ORL +5.2%

WAS -23.9%

WAS -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.0	13.9	14.5	122.7	114.7	113.9
season	15.1	13.7		111.8	109.8
opponent	14.1	14.4		118.7	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.5	15.8	15.3	15.5	16.0
WAS	12.5	13.6	15.3	14.5	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Suggs	64	64	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.16	24	-14	38	15.6	16.9	-1.32	14.4	13.1	1.29
Paolo Banchero	80	77	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.20	18	-8	26	15.5	18.8	-3.30	13.8	14.6	-0.76
Franz Wagner	78	77	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.09	20	-10	30	16.0	16.1	-0.01	14.2	12.7	1.57
Anthony Black	46	44	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.14	18	-8	26	15.2	16.8	-1.61	14.0	13.8	0.20
Cole Anthony	50	47	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.32	0	10	-10	16.6	15.5	1.07	13.5	14.4	-0.84
Moritz Wagner	41	42	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	6	-2	16.2	15.9	0.22	14.0	13.8	0.20
Goga Bitadze	51	50	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.09	13	-3	16	16.1	16.0	0.12	14.1	13.7	0.43
Caleb Houstan	9	8	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	18	-26	19.0	15.7	3.26	11.6	14.1	-2.52
Markelle Fultz	39	39	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.18	-20	30	-50	16.7	15.6	1.13	13.7	14.1	-0.46
Joe Ingles	27	27	-0.48	0.98	-1.46	0.08	-19	29	-48	17.0	15.7	1.38	13.6	14.1	-0.48

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Davis	36	35	0.34	-0.84	1.18	-0.07	14	-24	38	14.1	13.9	0.19	17.1	15.4	1.68
Landry Shamet	31	31	0.31	-0.81	1.13	0.08	8	-18	26	14.5	13.7	0.86	16.6	15.8	0.89
Richaun Holmes	48	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.40	11	-21	32	13.6	14.2	-0.59	16.1	16.0	0.08
Eugene Omoruyi	13	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-6	2	14.8	13.8	0.96	17.0	15.9	1.09
Jordan Poole	65	68	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.34	4	-14	18	12.9	16.2	-3.31	16.3	15.4	0.85
Bilal Coulibaly	54	57	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-14	4	-18	13.7	14.3	-0.63	16.0	16.0	-0.01
Corey Kispert	39	38	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	4	-18	14.6	13.5	1.11	16.0	16.1	-0.11
Deni Avdija	71	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.11	-12	2	-14	14.1	13.6	0.47	16.1	16.0	0.06
Tyus Jones	55	56	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.21	-19	9	-28	14.3	13.4	0.93	15.3	17.1	-1.79
Kyle Kuzma	63	65	-0.83	0.33	-1.17	-0.13	-24	14	-38	14.1	13.7	0.38	15.4	17.4	-1.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.47,0.31,0.07,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 104, LAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.5,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.83,0.79,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.67,0.68,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.31,0.07,0.01,0,0	92.4%
MIL 103, DAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.91,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.39,0.15,0.03,0.06,0.04,0	92.4%
NYK 102, CLE 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.79,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.63,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.46,0.24,0.28,0.14,0.07,0	92.1%