NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	110		Excitement	7.3 [391]		MVP	Jrue Holiday (BOS): +22.4%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	1.2 [1099]		LVP	Haywood Highsmith (MIA): -9.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jrue Holiday	0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.15	0.06	-0.01	8	94%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22	0.14	0.09	0.01	14	68%	0.24	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.03
Payton Pritchard	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.00	5	80%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.05	0.06	-0.09	16	56%	0.21	6	-0.11	4	25%	-0.08
Jayson Tatum	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09	0.12	-0.01	0.02	20	62%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oshae Brissett	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derrick White	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	9	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.13	-0.03	11	62%	0.21	1	0.00	2	100%	0.07
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.09	0.01	21	57%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.01	12	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	16	39%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.02	18	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.04
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	43%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	6	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	4	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	3.4	28.6	16.6	29.3	3.5	38.4	142.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +79.5%

MIA -20.7%

BOS +5.4%

MIA -18.4%

BOS +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	15.4	14.5	122.2	116.5	113.9
season	14.8	14.9		121.4	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.7		111.0	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.2	14.2	18.0	17.6	16.1
MIA	13.2	15.8	15.6	17.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	73	73	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.33	6	-2	8	15.8	17.4	-1.50	15.1	16.8	-1.74
Jayson Tatum	73	74	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	-1	6	16.3	15.5	0.82	15.3	15.9	-0.54
Jaylen Brown	73	72	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	1	2	15.8	17.4	-1.50	14.6	18.5	-3.90
Jrue Holiday	66	67	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	0	4	16.5	15.2	1.20	15.7	14.8	0.88
Al Horford	45	47	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.25	2	2	0	16.0	16.3	-0.31	16.0	14.8	1.20
Kristaps Porzingis	61	61	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.17	2	2	0	15.8	16.9	-1.13	14.8	16.7	-1.93
Oshae Brissett	4	4	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	0	4	15.5	16.2	-0.66	18.5	15.3	3.20
Sam Hauser	25	26	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	4	-4	16.4	16.0	0.42	17.2	14.8	2.40
Luke Kornet	4	4	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	4	-4	17.5	16.1	1.43	15.5	15.4	0.06
Payton Pritchard	26	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	10	-16	17.2	15.7	1.49	16.6	15.0	1.59

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Orlando Robinson	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-4	4	0.0	15.4	-15.44	23.0	16.1	6.94
Josh Richardson	15	14	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	2	-8	15.5	15.4	0.11	14.7	16.4	-1.68
Terry Rozier	47	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-2	0	14.7	16.2	-1.57	15.8	16.5	-0.76
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	55	52	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.15	0	-4	4	15.3	15.7	-0.38	17.2	14.7	2.42
Haywood Highsmith	40	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-5	6	16.6	14.5	2.07	17.0	15.5	1.51
Bam Adebayo	66	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-7	10	14.9	16.9	-2.04	16.3	15.7	0.58
Kevin Love	28	27	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-10	6	-16	17.5	14.5	2.98	15.9	16.3	-0.40
Caleb Martin	69	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-4	4	15.0	16.8	-1.76	16.0	16.5	-0.45
Tyler Herro	74	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-2	0	14.9	17.9	-3.00	15.9	17.2	-1.28
Duncan Robinson	61	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	0	-4	16.2	13.9	2.30	15.6	17.3	-1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.29,0.37,0.37,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.12,0.2,0.24,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 91, NYK 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.1,0	94.2%
UTA 96, LAL 92	0.5,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.08,0	94.1%
CHA 105, CHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.29,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0	93.9%