NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	5.8 [613]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +15.0%
New York Knicks	85		Comeback	1.1 [490]		LVP	Larry Johnson (NYK): -23.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	15	76%	0.23	4	-0.08	7	71%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	5	90%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	4	79%	0.05	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Keith Askins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.10	0.00	-0.07	6	28%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	17%	-0.01
Marty Conlon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	17	57%	0.03	4	-0.08	13	69%	-0.02
Terry Mills	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.19	-0.04	-0.02	13	25%	-0.10	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	5	80%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Bowie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	7	56%	0.05	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Dudley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Allan Houston	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	18	61%	0.05	4	-0.11	8	87%	0.02
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	7	37%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Terry Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.02	7	29%	-0.11	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.03
Larry Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23	-0.23	-0.12	-0.11	-0.00	12	59%	-0.01	7	-0.22	13	77%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.6	2.0	30.5	17.7	29.5	2.4	43.6	156.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +23.3%

NYK -0.1%

NYK -2.6%

MIA +23.1%

MIA +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.6	98.9	92.4	102.5
season	15.8	15.7		104.7	100.4
opponent	16.3	16.2		98.6	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.3	17.0	17.1	15.3	15.5
NYK	14.4	17.3	18.1	14.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	76	76	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.25	8	-2	10	14.8	19.2	-4.42	15.6	16.7	-1.18
Tim Hardaway	85	85	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	1	4	15.4	16.9	-1.43	15.4	19.7	-4.27
Marty Conlon	52	50	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.16	7	-1	8	16.8	13.8	2.98	15.6	15.9	-0.29
Eric Murdock	49	49	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.31	1	5	-4	15.8	15.2	0.56	15.4	16.2	-0.73
Terry Mills	12	11	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.01	11	-5	16	13.7	15.8	-2.15	14.7	15.9	-1.19
P.J. Brown	50	52	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.18	3	3	0	15.0	16.2	-1.25	14.8	17.0	-2.26
Jamal Mashburn	47	46	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.10	3	3	0	15.6	15.5	0.04	18.1	13.5	4.63
Alonzo Mourning	60	62	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.29	-7	13	-20	15.4	15.7	-0.33	16.5	14.4	2.08
Keith Askins	29	29	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	7	-8	17.1	14.8	2.24	15.1	16.1	-0.98

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Bowie	0	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-4	2	0.0	15.8	-15.77	3.0	15.7	-12.67
Chris Mills	38	37	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-12	18	16.6	15.2	1.33	14.7	16.1	-1.34
Chris Dudley	11	11	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-2	-2	16.8	15.6	1.19	11.5	16.1	-4.53
Terry Cummings	23	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-5	4	20.2	14.3	5.93	18.0	14.8	3.18
John Starks	48	51	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.21	1	-7	8	14.5	17.2	-2.70	16.7	14.0	2.72
Charlie Ward	46	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	1	-8	14.9	16.7	-1.76	14.2	16.9	-2.70
Charles Oakley	73	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	0	-6	15.6	16.6	-1.02	16.4	12.2	4.18
Larry Johnson	80	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-2	-2	15.5	17.7	-2.18	15.2	17.9	-2.74
Chris Childs	58	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.32	-4	-2	-2	15.4	16.5	-1.11	15.6	15.5	0.12
Allan Houston	83	82	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.26	-9	3	-12	16.0	13.4	2.58	15.5	15.7	-0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 99, PHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.3,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.15,0.04,0.01,0.02,0	94.8%
HOU 109, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.02,0.1,0.03,0.01,0	94.7%
MIN 108, WAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.32,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.26,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.01,0	94.5%