NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	7.8 [321]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +26.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	106		Comeback	1.0 [914]		LVP	Skylar Mays (LAL): -8.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.27	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.27,0.27	0.07	0.19	-0.00	25	58%	0.37	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18	0.16	0.04	0.02	20	66%	0.20	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	8	61%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
DeAndre Jordan	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.00	6	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.05	20	55%	0.21	6	-0.17	4	100%	0.03
Justin Holiday	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	6	42%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	8	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.11	-0.02	27	53%	0.23	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.04
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.00	6	64%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Austin Reaves	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.18,0.15,0.15	0.15	-0.02	0.13	-0.03	16	44%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.03	0.01	6	87%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Christian Wood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Max Christie	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	44%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.04	5	20%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.11,0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.08	0.03	20	56%	-0.00	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.06
Skylar Mays	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	3.4	23.5	16.4	31.5	3.3	31.6	132.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +48.5%

LAL -13.5%

DEN +32.1%

LAL -17.9%

DEN +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	16.3	13.7	14.5	118.8	110.4	113.9
season	15.0	14.1		116.2	114.4
opponent	14.3	14.6		114.3	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	13.8	19.8	19.2	16.3
LAL	13.1	14.4	12.9	14.2	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	65	64	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.18	18	-10	28	15.7	17.6	-1.89	13.8	13.5	0.30
Jamal Murray	75	74	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.15	17	-9	26	15.6	19.0	-3.47	13.8	13.1	0.69
Nikola Jokic	75	74	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.26	10	-2	12	15.9	17.8	-1.89	13.4	14.7	-1.38
Michael Porter Jr.	73	75	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.30	6	2	4	16.8	14.8	1.98	13.8	13.1	0.67
Justin Holiday	46	48	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.00	11	-3	14	14.7	17.9	-3.23	13.8	13.5	0.33
Peyton Watson	48	47	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.26	-3	11	-14	17.5	15.1	2.37	13.5	13.8	-0.26
DeAndre Jordan	21	22	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	8	-8	17.8	15.9	1.89	14.7	13.4	1.38
Christian Braun	27	28	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.09	-9	17	-26	16.8	16.2	0.62	12.7	14.1	-1.34
Reggie Jackson	50	48	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.09	-10	18	-28	17.7	14.8	2.94	13.6	13.7	-0.17

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Wood	36	37	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.07	7	-15	22	13.0	14.0	-1.02	17.3	15.7	1.52
Skylar Mays	13	15	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.01	1	-9	10	13.7	13.7	0.03	16.9	16.2	0.71
Max Christie	35	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-1	-6	13.6	13.7	-0.15	13.1	18.1	-5.02
Taurean Prince	66	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-9	10	13.4	14.2	-0.73	17.4	14.1	3.35
Rui Hachimura	76	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.03	-12	4	-16	13.9	12.9	0.91	16.3	16.6	-0.34
Jaxson Hayes	33	33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-4	0	14.5	13.2	1.29	17.2	15.9	1.29
LeBron James	71	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	-2	-4	14.2	12.3	1.87	16.5	16.0	0.52
Austin Reaves	72	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	1	-10	13.7	13.6	0.11	16.3	16.5	-0.19
Anthony Davis	78	78	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.25	-11	3	-14	13.2	15.8	-2.60	15.9	18.2	-2.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.36,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.31,0.37,0.43,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 88, PHI 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.04,0	92.8%
LAL 106, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.3,0.26,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.46,0.6,0.45,0.46,0.32,0.05,0	92.5%
TOR 95, ATL 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.22,0.04,0	92.1%