NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	133		Excitement	6.9 [446]		MVP	Jaden Ivey (DET): +40.8%
Sacramento Kings	120		Comeback	2.4 [89]		LVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): -10.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaden Ivey	0.41	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.28,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.16	0.23	-0.02	23	71%	0.59	5	-0.18	6	100%	0.05
Alec Burks	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28	0.21	0.09	0.02	12	83%	0.28	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Marcus Sasser	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	14	60%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Duren	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.00	10	77%	0.17	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Mike Muscala	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ausar Thompson	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	6	86%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Killian Hayes	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.03	0.01	7	57%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Harris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.21	0.16	0.01	17	68%	0.36	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.01
Malik Monk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.09	-0.03	21	53%	0.19	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.02	5	75%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	-0.03	-0.01	13	68%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.01	0.03	11	73%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vezenkov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	10	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keegan Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	14	37%	-0.07	2	-0.03	4	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	1.8	28.8	14.7	25.0	0.7	28.3	128.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +62.6%

DET +10.8%

DET +8.9%

SAC -32.1%

SAC -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAC	NBA	DET	SAC	NBA
this game	15.1	13.2	14.5	131.7	116.5	113.9
season	14.2	14.0		108.4	115.6
opponent	14.8	14.3		113.6	117.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.2	13.9	15.4	17.3	15.1
SAC	12.5	12.8	14.0	13.5	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaden Ivey	80	82	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.25	10	3	7	15.2	14.6	0.59	13.0	14.0	-0.99
Mike Muscala	53	54	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.25	8	5	3	14.3	16.0	-1.70	13.8	12.4	1.37
Marcus Sasser	67	69	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.01	16	-3	19	15.7	13.9	1.86	13.0	13.5	-0.54
Jalen Duren	78	78	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.13	11	2	9	14.8	16.1	-1.29	13.6	11.7	1.91
Alec Burks	59	60	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.06	12	1	11	15.9	14.0	1.91	12.9	13.5	-0.56
Ausar Thompson	57	59	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.03	12	1	11	14.8	15.5	-0.65	13.8	12.3	1.56
Danilo Gallinari	23	25	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	11	-9	16.1	14.8	1.29	11.7	13.6	-1.91
Killian Hayes	61	62	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	14	-15	14.0	16.8	-2.83	13.5	12.7	0.72
Joe Harris	27	26	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.07	-5	18	-23	16.1	14.7	1.45	11.3	13.8	-2.54

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Lyles	49	47	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.04	3	-16	19	12.7	13.6	-0.82	16.0	14.3	1.66
Sasha Vezenkov	14	13	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-17	21	9.8	13.7	-3.91	14.9	15.1	-0.19
Davion Mitchell	48	48	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.09	-1	-12	11	12.8	13.5	-0.70	16.6	13.7	2.97
Keegan Murray	45	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-9	5	13.2	13.1	0.10	14.3	15.7	-1.44
Malik Monk	74	70	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-5	-3	12.9	13.7	-0.78	15.4	14.3	1.11
Kevin Huerter	71	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-5	-3	13.8	11.7	2.19	14.8	15.8	-0.99
Domantas Sabonis	86	84	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.04	-17	4	-21	13.9	9.5	4.42	15.0	15.4	-0.32
Harrison Barnes	52	53	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.26	-17	4	-21	13.8	12.5	1.26	14.0	16.3	-2.29
De'Aaron Fox	76	74	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.26	-17	4	-21	12.6	14.8	-2.19	14.8	15.8	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.4,0.44,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.17,0.14,0.05,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 96, NJN 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.2,0.18,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.17,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.04,0	92.0%
OKC 97, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.23,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.33,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.05,0.01,0,0	91.2%
WAS 99, NOH 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	90.3%