NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	97		Excitement	7.5 [343]		MVP	Serge Ibaka (OKC): +19.1%
Denver Nuggets	94		Comeback	2.0 [294]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): -11.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.19	0.09	0.09	-0.01	13	61%	0.22	1	-0.03	10	100%	0.06
Russell Westbrook	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08	0.04	0.08	0.04	15	53%	0.14	2	-0.06	13	85%	0.05
Nick Collison	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.01	22	46%	0.04	2	-0.05	12	75%	-0.01
James Harden	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.05
Nazr Mohammed	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kendrick Perkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	5	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	4	81%	0.12	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	12	52%	0.00	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	0.02	10	50%	-0.00	1	-0.05	10	50%	-0.04
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	8	44%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.00	-0.00	9	30%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.06
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.01	-0.06	0.04	12	46%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	10	54%	0.00	5	-0.12	8	62%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.7	2.8	37.0	18.4	31.6	3.4	44.5	168.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +33.0%

OKC +15.2%

OKC +3.7%

OKC +7.6%

DEN -9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	14.5	15.5	98.0	96.9	105.7
season	15.0	14.3		108.8	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		106.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.2	13.6	17.5	14.3	14.8
DEN	14.0	16.4	13.8	14.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	73	73	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.37	16	-13	29	14.5	15.9	-1.46	15.3	12.2	3.15
James Harden	66	65	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.42	11	-8	19	14.1	16.4	-2.27	15.0	13.6	1.36
Serge Ibaka	79	78	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.45	5	-2	7	14.7	15.4	-0.69	15.0	12.6	2.43
Kevin Durant	89	87	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	-2	7	14.6	16.7	-2.06	14.7	13.5	1.16
Kendrick Perkins	40	40	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.20	3	0	3	14.9	14.8	0.13	13.9	15.0	-1.13
Thabo Sefolosha	43	41	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.19	0	3	-3	14.2	15.4	-1.21	15.8	13.6	2.16
Nick Collison	28	28	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.18	-8	11	-19	17.9	13.7	4.20	14.1	14.7	-0.55
Daequan Cook	21	20	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	6	-9	15.1	14.8	0.37	12.2	15.1	-2.88
Nazr Mohammed	30	29	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.16	-1	4	-5	15.4	14.6	0.74	13.0	15.2	-2.19
Eric Maynor	26	24	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	0.04	-13	16	-29	15.9	14.5	1.46	12.2	15.3	-3.15

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	28	32	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.20	14	-17	31	11.5	15.8	-4.22	16.1	14.3	1.79
Al Harrington	24	25	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.10	2	-5	7	12.5	15.2	-2.76	16.6	14.3	2.29
Chris Andersen	34	35	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-4	5	13.8	15.0	-1.19	16.1	14.2	1.91
Danilo Gallinari	35	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.08	1	-4	5	15.4	14.0	1.40	15.7	14.4	1.29
Wilson Chandler	46	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-3	3	13.3	15.7	-2.38	15.1	14.6	0.49
Kenyon Martin	65	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	3	-9	15.0	13.5	1.50	14.4	15.6	-1.17
Nene	63	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	1	-5	15.0	13.8	1.19	14.2	16.1	-1.91
Raymond Felton	63	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	2	-7	14.0	15.4	-1.39	14.6	15.3	-0.73
Arron Afflalo	69	68	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.30	-12	9	-21	15.5	12.2	3.26	13.6	17.6	-4.02
Ty Lawson	58	57	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.50	-6	3	-9	16.2	12.1	4.03	14.9	14.7	0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.23,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.33,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.05,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, POR 86	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.1,0.04,0,0,0	91.9%
TOR 104, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.04,0.01,0	91.9%
HOU 93, SAC 77	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.54,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.02,0,0,0	91.5%