NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	117		Excitement	6.4 [529]		MVP	Derrick White (BOS): +20.8%
Boston Celtics	125		Comeback	1.6 [1138]		LVP	Trae Young (ATL): -19.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Saddiq Bey	0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14	0.17	0.01	0.04	16	69%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Onyeka Okongwu	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.02	11	73%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jalen Johnson	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.01	16	58%	0.12	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Garrison Mathews	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	150%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruno Fernando	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	64%	0.07	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
De'Andre Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	9	48%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	18	33%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	0.00	25	38%	-0.07	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.10	0.02	14	75%	0.25	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.13	0.18	-0.01	0.05	19	74%	0.20	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.06	-0.02	5	80%	0.13	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	-0.00	-0.05	12	58%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.02	-0.02	11	65%	0.11	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oshae Brissett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	21	45%	0.08	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	24.2	15.3	22.4	2.5	25.6	117.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +80.8%

ATL -12.1%

ATL -7.4%

ATL -13.2%

BOS +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	BOS	NBA	ATL	BOS	NBA
this game	13.3	14.0	14.5	109.3	120.2	113.9
season	14.2	14.9		115.7	120.7
opponent	14.7	14.3		109.6	118.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.8	14.2	13.7	11.3	13.3
BOS	12.3	13.0	13.4	17.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	22	21	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.05	2	-10	12	13.8	13.2	0.60	14.6	13.9	0.76
Onyeka Okongwu	79	78	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.24	4	-12	16	13.2	13.7	-0.56	14.2	13.3	0.88
Jalen Johnson	82	80	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.25	1	-9	10	12.9	14.5	-1.54	13.8	14.8	-1.02
Saddiq Bey	79	78	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-7	6	13.2	13.5	-0.22	14.1	13.7	0.42
Garrison Mathews	32	29	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	-1	-6	13.7	13.1	0.60	14.0	14.0	0.03
Bogdan Bogdanovic	78	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-4	0	13.2	13.6	-0.44	14.2	13.4	0.81
Bruno Fernando	28	26	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.02	-12	4	-16	13.7	13.2	0.56	13.3	14.2	-0.88
De'Andre Hunter	50	48	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.11	-13	5	-18	13.9	12.8	1.13	13.9	14.1	-0.25
Trae Young	85	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.21	-10	2	-12	13.2	13.8	-0.60	13.9	14.6	-0.76

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	79	82	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	-4	16	14.0	14.0	-0.04	12.9	14.7	-1.80
Sam Hauser	51	54	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.04	14	-6	20	13.4	14.6	-1.25	14.8	11.8	2.99
Payton Pritchard	33	36	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.04	11	-3	14	13.3	14.3	-1.03	13.9	13.0	0.85
Derrick White	78	78	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.32	0	8	-8	14.4	12.8	1.55	12.8	14.5	-1.67
Jayson Tatum	80	80	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.21	3	5	-2	14.3	13.0	1.37	12.5	15.5	-2.97
Luke Kornet	45	45	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	6	-4	14.1	13.9	0.18	13.8	12.9	0.90
Kristaps Porzingis	68	71	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	6	-4	14.0	14.0	0.01	13.3	13.2	0.12
Jaylen Brown	73	76	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.23	-3	11	-14	13.9	14.2	-0.26	13.2	13.6	-0.49
Oshae Brissett	13	13	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	9	-10	14.2	14.0	0.16	14.4	13.1	1.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 99, TOR 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.48,0.62,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
OKC 96, NYK 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.7%
NOH 86, ORL 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.57,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.5%