NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	105		Excitement	6.7 [479]		MVP	Vince Williams Jr. (MEM): +33.7%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	1.8 [136]		LVP	Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM): -25.5%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Williams Jr.	0.34	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.34,0.34	0.25	0.12	0.03	10	104%	0.37	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
GG Jackson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.04	-0.02	9	77%	0.21	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Scotty Pippen Jr.	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.07	0.00	7	83%	0.20	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
John Konchar	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	7	79%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Tillman	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
David Roddy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	45%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jacob Gilyard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	60%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ziaire Williams	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.02	-0.00	8	0%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson Jr.	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25	-0.20	-0.08	-0.02	21	32%	-0.04	5	-0.22	5	80%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.06	-0.01	15	60%	0.17	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.01	8	75%	0.15	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	64%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	-0.06	0.03	-0.03	9	39%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	13	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	11	64%	-0.04
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	10	54%	0.02	4	-0.11	8	75%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.09	-0.15	-0.00	11	37%	-0.11	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	28.5	14.5	29.4	2.5	32.2	133.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +49.8%

MIA -1.0%

MEM +2.2%

MIA -3.9%

MEM +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIA	NBA	MEM	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	13.9	14.5	106.1	96.0	113.9
season	14.8	14.9		106.3	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.3		111.0	113.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.6	14.1	13.8	16.8	15.1
MIA	13.2	14.2	14.5	13.7	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
GG Jackson	50	53	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.12	20	-11	31	14.8	15.3	-0.43	14.8	12.8	2.02
Jaren Jackson Jr.	73	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	-2	13	15.3	14.2	1.11	13.7	14.5	-0.80
Scotty Pippen Jr.	49	49	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	-3	15	14.6	15.5	-0.91	15.1	12.7	2.44
Vince Williams Jr.	68	66	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.14	10	-1	11	15.4	14.2	1.25	13.8	14.1	-0.24
Ziaire Williams	36	38	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	3	3	13.5	16.0	-2.48	14.7	13.4	1.35
Xavier Tillman	37	38	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	5	-1	14.2	15.6	-1.38	15.1	13.2	1.86
Jacob Gilyard	50	51	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.16	-3	12	-15	15.5	14.6	0.91	12.7	15.1	-2.44
John Konchar	64	64	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.21	-6	15	-21	16.0	13.3	2.64	12.9	15.7	-2.80
David Roddy	68	68	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.16	-9	18	-27	14.9	15.3	-0.40	13.3	15.2	-1.85

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	39	39	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.13	6	-15	21	12.3	14.9	-2.61	15.4	14.8	0.64
Duncan Robinson	34	33	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-12	15	14.1	13.8	0.24	14.7	15.2	-0.48
Kevin Love	12	10	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	-2	-5	15.3	13.7	1.63	11.1	15.5	-4.39
Thomas Bryant	13	13	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-2	-5	16.6	13.5	3.12	15.7	15.0	0.74
Bam Adebayo	83	82	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-12	15	13.4	16.3	-2.88	15.1	14.9	0.20
Haywood Highsmith	52	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.00	-9	0	-9	13.5	14.4	-0.87	14.7	15.5	-0.84
Jimmy Butler	72	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.18	-4	-5	1	13.5	15.0	-1.58	15.5	13.7	1.79
Caleb Martin	58	57	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-1	-7	14.4	13.3	1.10	15.0	15.1	-0.12
Tyler Herro	77	77	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.23	-9	0	-9	13.9	14.0	-0.07	15.3	14.3	1.00
Terry Rozier	60	58	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.15	-13	4	-17	15.1	12.1	3.04	15.0	15.1	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.21,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.22,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 100, NJN 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.22,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.04,0	93.8%
UTA 102, TOR 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.02,0	93.7%
LAL 95, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.6%