NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	141		Excitement	8.6 [198]		MVP	Damian Lillard (MIL): +42.9%
Detroit Pistons	135		Comeback	2.7 [851]		LVP	Jaden Ivey (DET): -13.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.42,0.42,0.43	0.34	0.13	0.04	22	75%	0.48	1	-0.05	16	100%	0.09
Khris Middleton	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19	0.05	0.14	-0.00	12	57%	0.22	1	-0.04	6	67%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.02	0.14	0.00	16	57%	0.35	5	-0.19	22	50%	-0.13
Pat Connaughton	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.00	5	100%	0.17	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.00	0.02	13	61%	0.09	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Malik Beasley	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	9	61%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Jackson Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.23	0.13	0.02	20	69%	0.33	0	0.00	8	100%	0.08
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.14	0.10	0.00	4	130%	0.26	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ausar Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.08	0.04	15	73%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.00	1	114%	0.13	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Marcus Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	64%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
James Wiseman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Knox II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Duren	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	8	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Killian Hayes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.08	0.01	15	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Jaden Ivey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.10	-0.01	16	46%	0.03	3	-0.16	7	57%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.7	30.8	14.7	32.1	1.7	39.5	146.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +41.5%

MIL +9.3%

MIL +8.5%

DET -5.6%

DET -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	12.7	13.6	14.5	129.4	122.7	113.9
season	14.3	14.2		117.0	108.4
opponent	14.3	14.3		117.6	114.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.8	13.7	11.8	12.7	12.7
DET	13.0	13.5	13.9	14.0	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	78	80	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.26	22	-16	38	12.2	14.0	-1.81	13.8	12.9	0.95
Damian Lillard	85	87	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.36	18	-12	30	12.1	14.7	-2.62	13.7	13.3	0.31
Giannis Antetokounmpo	86	88	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.40	13	-7	20	12.4	13.9	-1.47	13.9	12.3	1.65
Brook Lopez	85	85	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.21	14	-8	22	12.7	12.8	-0.11	13.6	13.7	-0.17
Khris Middleton	76	76	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	-1	8	12.8	12.5	0.32	13.8	13.0	0.81
Andre Jackson Jr.	34	33	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.08	-1	7	-8	13.9	12.1	1.79	12.9	13.9	-0.93
Jae Crowder	31	32	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.16	-13	19	-32	13.2	12.5	0.68	13.2	13.8	-0.61
Bobby Portis	38	38	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.01	-12	18	-30	12.9	12.6	0.25	13.0	13.9	-0.86
Pat Connaughton	32	31	-0.52	1.02	-1.54	0.01	-18	24	-42	14.2	12.1	2.10	13.1	13.8	-0.64

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	35	35	0.59	-1.09	1.67	-0.00	20	-26	46	13.3	13.7	-0.49	13.9	12.1	1.78
Alec Burks	67	67	0.50	-1.00	1.50	-0.21	24	-30	54	12.9	14.7	-1.86	13.6	11.3	2.27
Mike Muscala	32	31	0.43	-0.93	1.36	-0.13	19	-25	44	13.0	13.8	-0.88	14.3	12.1	2.26
Marcus Sasser	33	35	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.01	8	-14	22	13.8	13.5	0.32	13.7	12.3	1.40
James Wiseman	10	10	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-6	6	11.8	13.8	-1.97	15.5	12.4	3.08
Ausar Thompson	72	71	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.26	6	-12	18	13.6	13.6	0.06	13.4	11.3	2.09
Kevin Knox II	37	36	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.09	-22	16	-38	13.8	13.5	0.33	11.6	13.2	-1.64
Killian Hayes	43	42	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.15	-19	13	-32	13.6	13.6	0.06	11.2	13.6	-2.39
Jaden Ivey	76	75	-0.87	0.37	-1.25	-0.43	-15	9	-24	13.9	13.0	0.86	12.1	14.0	-1.84
Jalen Duren	69	69	-0.92	0.42	-1.34	-0.28	-22	16	-38	14.1	12.7	1.41	11.8	14.3	-2.56
Bojan Bogdanovic	76	74	-1.14	0.64	-1.77	-0.28	-29	23	-52	13.9	12.9	0.98	12.0	14.3	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.57,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.64,0.47,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 93, WAS 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.33,0.2,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	92.6%
IND 113, BOS 104	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.07,0.1,0.01,0	91.2%
MIL 99, CHA 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.5,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.46,0.53,0.31,0.37,0.09,0.02,0	91.0%