NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	109		Excitement	9.7 [95]		MVP	Dejounte Murray (ATL): +44.7%
Miami Heat	108		Comeback	39.6 [27]		LVP	Kevin Love (MIA): -22.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dejounte Murray	0.45	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.24,0.45	0.01	0.47	0.03	22	49%	0.51	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Clint Capela	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14	0.05	0.09	0.00	4	60%	0.14	0	0.00	7	71%	0.03
Garrison Mathews	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.00	5	90%	0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.00	6	92%	0.17	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	12	45%	0.10	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.04
Onyeka Okongwu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	90%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	14	54%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.08,-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	15	53%	0.19	3	-0.21	2	100%	0.02
Trent Forrest	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.26	0.26	0.12	0.15	0.00	19	64%	0.35	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.09	0.02	10	83%	0.40	4	-0.21	10	90%	0.07
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.11	-0.00	5	69%	0.19	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.11	-0.00	15	55%	0.22	3	-0.10	8	87%	-0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.03	-0.00	8	87%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.14	-0.09	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	27.1	35.4	26.3	2.4	38.3	154.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +39.5%

MIA -7.2%

MIA -10.5%

ATL +12.7%

ATL +15.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.5	15.5	14.5	113.5	112.5	113.9
season	14.2	14.9		115.7	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.3		111.0	118.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.4	16.4	14.5	14.2	14.5
MIA	14.9	16.3	16.1	14.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Onyeka Okongwu	51	52	1.20	-0.70	1.89	0.81	13	-12	25	14.9	14.1	0.85	15.2	15.8	-0.66
Jalen Johnson	67	65	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.49	1	0	1	15.0	13.5	1.47	15.3	15.8	-0.56
Dejounte Murray	78	79	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.39	3	-2	5	14.2	16.2	-2.07	16.0	13.1	2.92
Garrison Mathews	39	40	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.02	12	-11	23	13.6	15.2	-1.60	16.0	15.1	0.97
Bogdan Bogdanovic	68	70	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.31	1	0	1	15.2	12.9	2.28	15.7	14.7	1.00
Saddiq Bey	72	72	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	3	-5	13.9	16.4	-2.50	15.9	14.1	1.83
Trent Forrest	20	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.10	-4	5	-9	17.2	13.8	3.36	13.3	16.0	-2.74
Patty Mills	40	39	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.01	-7	8	-15	14.1	14.8	-0.67	13.9	16.5	-2.67
Clint Capela	45	44	-0.52	1.02	-1.55	-0.17	-12	13	-25	14.1	14.9	-0.85	15.8	15.2	0.66

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	41	41	0.39	-0.89	1.27	0.21	6	-7	13	15.2	15.7	-0.46	15.6	13.7	1.86
Nikola Jovic	31	30	0.16	-0.66	0.83	0.05	4	-5	9	15.9	15.2	0.70	14.0	14.8	-0.79
Haywood Highsmith	19	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.14	1	-2	3	14.7	15.6	-0.97	17.7	13.8	3.85
Caleb Martin	55	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.29	3	-4	7	15.6	15.3	0.33	13.8	15.5	-1.69
Kevin Love	25	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.11	-11	10	-21	15.1	15.6	-0.46	13.3	15.0	-1.71
Bam Adebayo	76	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.56	8	-9	17	15.8	14.1	1.65	15.1	12.5	2.58
Kyle Lowry	48	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.15	-7	6	-13	14.9	16.0	-1.04	15.4	13.7	1.67
Jimmy Butler	73	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-1	1	15.4	15.7	-0.25	13.7	17.5	-3.78
Tyler Herro	70	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.41	0	-1	1	15.8	14.5	1.31	13.8	16.9	-3.11
Josh Richardson	42	41	-1.04	0.54	-1.59	-0.78	-9	8	-17	15.2	15.6	-0.43	15.2	14.1	1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.68,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.63,0.47,0.53,0.67,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 105, ORL 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.43,0.58,0	91.7%
SEA 82, LAL 81	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.78,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.66,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.57,0	89.7%
ORL 102, MIA 101	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.76,0.8,0.72,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.53,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.71,0.55,0.73,0	89.2%