NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	109		Excitement	6.4 [533]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +25.4%
Denver Nuggets	117		Comeback	1.6 [1006]		LVP	T.J. McConnell (IND): -10.8%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Obi Toppin	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.00	0.04	5	110%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bennedict Mathurin	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.09	-0.00	9	52%	0.13	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.09
Isaiah Jackson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.02	9	67%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	16	51%	0.09	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Jalen Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	53%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Buddy Hield	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	13	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Nwora	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	5	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	11	48%	-0.01	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Andrew Nembhard	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.02	0.07	8	55%	-0.05	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
T.J. McConnell	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	9	25%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.21	0.06	0.02	15	83%	0.29	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	4	100%	0.17	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	13	89%	0.26	7	-0.15	2	50%	-0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.02	0.00	10	71%	0.13	2	-0.04	8	75%	0.02
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.07	0.01	18	62%	0.21	5	-0.13	4	50%	-0.03
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	90%	0.10	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Justin Holiday	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.8	35.7	14.8	23.4	2.4	31.5	135.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +78.2%

IND -4.0%

IND -7.9%

IND -18.2%

DEN +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	14.0	14.6	14.5	107.9	117.0	113.9
season	13.8	15.0		120.0	116.2
opponent	14.6	14.7		111.6	117.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.6	13.6	15.6	12.5	14.0
DEN	14.2	13.6	15.7	15.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. McConnell	40	40	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.08	8	-16	24	14.0	14.0	0.01	14.8	14.5	0.35
Obi Toppin	53	53	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.18	8	-16	24	13.0	15.1	-2.15	15.3	13.9	1.33
Jordan Nwora	29	27	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-11	14	13.7	14.2	-0.51	14.3	14.8	-0.42
Buddy Hield	59	58	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-9	10	14.0	14.0	0.03	14.4	15.0	-0.62
Isaiah Jackson	40	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.12	-3	-5	2	14.5	13.7	0.75	15.4	14.2	1.26
Myles Turner	54	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-3	-2	13.8	14.3	-0.52	14.4	14.9	-0.49
Bennedict Mathurin	43	45	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.16	-7	-1	-6	14.7	13.5	1.22	15.0	14.3	0.74
Jalen Smith	55	54	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.08	-16	8	-24	14.9	13.0	1.95	13.7	15.7	-2.04
Bruce Brown	71	70	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.17	-13	5	-18	13.7	14.7	-0.97	14.7	14.5	0.25
Andrew Nembhard	61	60	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.19	-16	8	-24	14.0	14.0	-0.01	14.5	14.8	-0.35

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	78	80	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.19	17	-9	26	14.7	14.4	0.30	13.7	15.2	-1.48
Nikola Jokic	69	70	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.28	10	-2	12	14.9	14.1	0.79	14.2	13.7	0.45
Michael Porter Jr.	78	80	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.17	13	-5	18	14.3	15.8	-1.45	13.8	14.7	-0.82
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	78	78	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.15	11	-3	14	14.8	14.0	0.88	13.7	15.1	-1.38
Reggie Jackson	48	48	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.11	4	4	0	14.7	14.6	0.17	14.2	13.8	0.36
Jamal Murray	76	75	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.21	-5	13	-18	14.7	14.5	0.24	13.9	14.5	-0.65
Justin Holiday	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	8	-8	0.0	14.6	-14.64	16.0	14.0	2.00
Peyton Watson	28	28	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	9	-10	13.6	15.0	-1.38	14.6	13.8	0.86
Christian Braun	30	29	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	13	-18	14.9	14.5	0.37	14.9	13.7	1.18
DeAndre Jordan	15	16	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	12	-16	14.6	14.6	-0.05	14.8	13.9	0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.75,0.54,0.55,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.7,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 95, GSW 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.58,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.5%
UTA 103, MIN 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.74,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	93.5%
IND 90, WAS 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.61,0.68,0.76,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.98,1,0.97,0.96,1,1,1,1	93.4%