NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	130		Excitement	5.8 [630]		MVP	Jalen Johnson (ATL): +23.1%
Washington Wizards	126		Comeback	2.5 [796]		LVP	Clint Capela (ATL): -6.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Johnson	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.19	0.03	-0.01	12	83%	0.25	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Dejounte Murray	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.19	0.04	0.02	21	68%	0.23	1	-0.02	5	60%	0.00
Trae Young	0.15	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.17	0.02	0.05	19	70%	0.25	5	-0.11	19	74%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.04	-0.04	10	48%	0.10	1	-0.01	3	33%	0.00
Garrison Mathews	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruno Fernando	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	19	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Clint Capela	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	11	42%	-0.01	3	-0.06	4	25%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.01	-0.00	31	60%	0.18	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.01	10	60%	0.09	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	8	62%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deni Avdija	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	9	65%	0.10	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.01
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.00	0.05	4	83%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jordan Poole	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	14	46%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Landry Shamet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bilal Coulibaly	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.10	11	61%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.6	25.9	14.7	26.3	2.6	40.5	137.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +21.7%

ATL +8.0%

ATL +21.7%

WAS -5.0%

ATL +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.0	12.6	14.5	120.4	115.6	113.9
season	14.2	13.7		115.7	109.8
opponent	14.1	14.3		118.7	118.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.1	13.9	15.1	13.8	14.0
WAS	12.1	14.3	12.1	11.9	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bogdan Bogdanovic	58	59	0.67	-0.17	0.85	-0.03	24	-20	44	13.7	14.3	-0.61	14.2	10.7	3.47
Patty Mills	16	19	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.10	17	-13	30	13.1	14.1	-1.05	14.8	12.1	2.66
Dejounte Murray	76	79	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	4	-4	14.4	12.9	1.44	12.0	14.1	-2.12
Bruno Fernando	34	34	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	-3	10	13.3	14.3	-0.96	13.4	12.2	1.23
Saddiq Bey	72	75	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.33	-2	6	-8	14.2	13.4	0.76	12.1	13.6	-1.53
Clint Capela	74	75	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.34	-4	8	-12	14.3	13.3	0.96	12.2	13.4	-1.23
Garrison Mathews	32	30	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	0	4	12.9	14.4	-1.44	14.1	12.0	2.12
Trae Young	92	90	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.48	-13	17	-30	14.1	13.1	1.05	12.1	14.8	-2.66
Jalen Johnson	86	84	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.43	-13	17	-30	13.9	14.0	-0.12	11.9	14.9	-3.02

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deni Avdija	73	74	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.38	14	-18	32	11.8	14.2	-2.43	13.9	14.1	-0.15
Daniel Gafford	66	65	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.40	13	-17	30	11.8	13.7	-1.90	14.2	13.6	0.62
Tyus Jones	65	63	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.27	5	-9	14	11.7	13.9	-2.16	13.9	14.1	-0.23
Jordan Poole	68	66	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.31	6	-10	16	11.9	13.7	-1.82	13.8	14.2	-0.43
Corey Kispert	38	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	0	-4	13.7	12.0	1.71	14.1	13.9	0.27
Kyle Kuzma	77	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.31	0	-4	4	12.3	13.4	-1.15	14.1	13.7	0.41
Delon Wright	39	39	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.09	-9	5	-14	13.7	12.0	1.79	13.8	14.1	-0.29
Landry Shamet	37	38	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.09	-11	7	-18	14.1	11.8	2.21	15.0	13.4	1.61
Bilal Coulibaly	39	38	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.06	-18	14	-32	13.8	11.9	1.87	13.2	14.4	-1.15
Mike Muscala	43	43	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.01	-16	12	-28	13.7	11.8	1.90	13.6	14.2	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.14,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 103, DAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.5%
NJN 100, NYK 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.24,0.15,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.4%
UTA 85, MEM 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0	93.3%