NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	103		Excitement	5.4 [714]		MVP	Terry Dehere (SAC): +6.2%
Dallas Mavericks	92		Comeback	2.0 [306]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -25.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Dehere	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.02	4	110%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	7	60%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Olden Polynice	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	21	55%	0.03	2	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Billy Owens	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Mark Hendrickson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	4	60%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Bobby Hurley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	42%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Mitch Richmond	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.12	0.00	-0.05	13	50%	0.03	5	-0.09	10	90%	0.03
Michael Stewart	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Corliss Williamson	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	-0.00	19	34%	-0.07	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Samaki Walker	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.04	13	59%	0.08	2	-0.06	8	50%	-0.02
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	13	48%	-0.00	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.03	16	66%	0.11	4	-0.12	3	67%	-0.01
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khalid Reeves	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	5	0%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.24,-0.26,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.16	-0.06	0.04	21	36%	-0.16	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.5	25.1	15.8	26.2	1.4	32.5	129.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +14.0%

SAC +9.8%

SAC +17.1%

SAC +7.9%

SAC +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.1	16.8	15.6	109.6	98.9	102.5
season	15.2	15.8		98.5	98.3
opponent	15.5	15.3		104.6	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.6	13.6	13.6	12.8	14.1
DAL	16.9	17.1	17.1	16.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olden Polynice	70	69	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.20	17	-6	23	13.1	16.9	-3.85	16.9	16.5	0.41
Corliss Williamson	79	77	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.17	8	3	5	13.8	15.6	-1.84	16.7	16.9	-0.13
Billy Owens	66	66	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	6	-1	14.5	13.0	1.50	17.6	14.6	3.01
Bobby Hurley	35	34	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.05	12	-1	13	13.5	14.4	-0.95	16.8	16.7	0.05
Mitch Richmond	75	73	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	1	9	13.8	15.2	-1.38	16.7	17.1	-0.43
Terry Dehere	21	22	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.07	5	6	-1	13.9	14.1	-0.25	16.4	16.9	-0.46
Mark Hendrickson	43	43	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.06	9	2	7	13.9	14.2	-0.27	15.5	17.9	-2.41
Anthony Johnson	59	59	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.22	-1	12	-13	14.4	13.5	0.95	16.7	16.8	-0.05
Michael Stewart	22	22	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	21	-31	18.3	12.7	5.57	17.1	16.7	0.43

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khalid Reeves	42	42	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-10	9	15.8	17.6	-1.83	14.9	13.4	1.45
Shawn Bradley	75	76	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.28	3	-14	17	16.9	16.2	0.67	15.1	9.7	5.36
Dennis Scott	81	81	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-11	11	16.7	17.4	-0.75	14.4	11.8	2.65
Samaki Walker	56	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.06	-10	-1	-9	15.7	18.3	-2.59	14.2	13.8	0.45
Erick Strickland	25	26	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-5	-1	17.4	16.5	0.87	11.7	15.0	-3.32
A.C. Green	37	37	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	3	-17	18.2	15.8	2.32	12.6	15.0	-2.41
Michael Finley	83	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.14	-12	1	-13	17.0	15.2	1.75	14.3	12.0	2.33
Hubert Davis	66	67	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.12	-15	4	-19	17.0	16.2	0.76	13.2	16.2	-2.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 85, MEM 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0	95.1%
SAS 89, IND 77	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.4,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.3%
BOS 110, DET 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.34,0.2,0.18,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%