NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Excitement	7.9 [301]		MVP	Anthony Edwards (MIN): +36.1%
Miami Heat	108		Comeback	7.5 [230]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -13.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Edwards	0.36	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.23,0.31,0.22,0.36	0.13	0.26	0.03	25	59%	0.37	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Mike Conley	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.12	0.00	5	117%	0.29	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.01	5	67%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Karl-Anthony Towns	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.08	0.01	14	58%	0.17	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Naz Reid	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	13	46%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gobert	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.07	0.00	8	45%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Troy Brown Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jaden McDaniels	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.11	0.17	-0.01	6	87%	0.30	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.13	0.00	9	78%	0.24	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.06	0.03	18	62%	0.18	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Kevin Love	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.01	7	64%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	12	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	8	44%	0.00	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Caleb Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.18,-0.24,-0.15,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	22	47%	-0.01	4	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.3	30.6	15.4	22.4	1.8	32.1	130.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +40.0%

MIA -0.2%

MIN +0.8%

MIN +8.8%

MIN +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	14.3	14.5	115.5	109.1	113.9
season	14.9	14.9		114.4	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.7		111.0	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.9	14.3	17.0	14.6	15.1
MIA	13.3	12.3	15.8	16.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	45	45	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-10	24	15.1	15.2	-0.10	14.1	14.4	-0.34
Rudy Gobert	73	74	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.49	4	0	4	14.9	15.7	-0.80	14.0	15.0	-0.95
Mike Conley	67	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.44	3	1	2	14.8	15.9	-1.05	14.6	13.5	1.13
Anthony Edwards	79	79	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.25	6	-2	8	15.3	14.4	0.86	14.9	11.8	3.07
Naz Reid	41	42	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	2	0	15.9	14.6	1.36	14.4	14.1	0.31
Kyle Anderson	46	48	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	2	0	14.7	15.6	-0.89	13.4	15.1	-1.74
Karl-Anthony Towns	62	65	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	8	-12	15.6	14.3	1.39	14.4	14.0	0.43
Jaden McDaniels	60	61	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	3	-2	14.9	15.5	-0.51	14.7	13.5	1.26
Troy Brown Jr.	12	12	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.09	-8	12	-20	14.8	15.2	-0.35	10.1	14.8	-4.74

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	45	47	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.01	2	-6	8	15.5	13.2	2.31	15.1	15.2	-0.11
Caleb Martin	45	44	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.04	3	-7	10	14.9	13.7	1.21	15.2	15.1	0.19
Jimmy Butler	69	68	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-9	14	14.6	13.5	1.13	15.3	14.9	0.40
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	63	62	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-2	0	13.6	15.4	-1.83	15.5	14.6	0.85
Tyler Herro	65	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-3	2	15.5	11.9	3.52	15.1	15.2	-0.02
Haywood Highsmith	27	27	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	6	-16	12.1	15.0	-2.89	14.9	15.2	-0.30
Bam Adebayo	79	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-1	-2	13.8	16.0	-2.25	15.2	15.0	0.25
Josh Richardson	54	53	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.34	-7	3	-10	13.7	14.9	-1.21	15.1	15.2	-0.19
Duncan Robinson	48	45	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.36	-7	3	-10	13.7	14.7	-0.98	14.6	15.6	-0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.86,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.79,0.68,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.47,0.31,0.21,0.32,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 107, CLE 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.16,0	92.9%
ATL 82, BOS 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.88,0.84,0.72,0.66,0.76,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.42,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.11,0.03,0.02,0	92.2%
LAC 106, DET 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.66,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.89,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.53,0.54,0.36,0.35,0.23,0.25,0.36,0.31,0.09,0	92.1%