NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	130		Excitement	11.1 [41]		MVP	Sam Merrill (CLE): +25.6%
Cleveland Cavaliers	135		Comeback	2.6 [600]		LVP	Caris LeVert (CLE): -21.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.06	0.01	6	100%	0.20	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Dillon Brooks	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	12	62%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Holiday	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.00	-0.00	9	70%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jae'Sean Tate	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	33%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jock Landale	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alperen Sengun	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.04	-0.03	20	57%	0.10	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.11
Jabari Smith Jr.	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	7	36%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.23,0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	0.11	-0.12	0.06	19	63%	-0.02	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.04
Tari Eason	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08	-0.03	-0.08	-0.03	13	45%	0.00	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Jalen Green	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.06	-0.15	-0.02	12	39%	-0.07	2	-0.11	7	100%	0.04

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Merrill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.18	0.08	0.00	11	79%	0.26	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.19	0.06	0.01	27	63%	0.37	2	-0.12	5	100%	0.04
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.12	0.00	13	55%	0.20	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Isaac Okoro	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	7	65%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Dean Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	5	100%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Craig Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Allen	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	7	48%	0.05	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.05
Georges Niang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	10	50%	0.05	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	8	25%	-0.10
Caris LeVert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.07	-0.14	0.00	13	43%	-0.10	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.2	1.8	28.1	14.5	35.2	1.8	32.0	2.5	18.3	161.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.4	15.1	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +63.8%

HOU -13.7%

HOU -13.8%

CLE +6.4%

CLE +7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	CLE	NBA	HOU	CLE	NBA
this game	15.3	15.3	14.5	125.0	129.8	113.9
season	14.2	14.8		113.2	113.0
opponent	14.7	14.6		111.3	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
HOU	12.5	15.8	15.2	18.2	14.7	15.3
CLE	17.5	17.0	11.5	16.9	13.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	45	45	0.56	-1.06	1.63	0.09	16	-21	37	15.2	15.3	-0.14	16.3	14.6	1.75
Jock Landale	9	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-1	-3	12.1	15.6	-3.45	17.6	15.1	2.45
Aaron Holiday	39	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.14	2	-7	9	13.2	16.5	-3.33	13.9	16.2	-2.31
Jae'Sean Tate	35	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	0	-5	13.7	16.0	-2.33	14.4	15.7	-1.30
Fred VanVleet	87	88	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.27	2	-7	9	15.3	15.1	0.24	15.4	14.8	0.60
Dillon Brooks	72	71	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.34	0	-5	5	16.0	13.7	2.27	15.7	14.4	1.35
Alperen Sengun	58	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.27	-3	-2	-1	16.3	14.0	2.26	14.5	16.4	-1.81
Tari Eason	68	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-4	3	14.9	15.9	-1.00	14.6	16.6	-2.02
Jabari Smith Jr.	42	42	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.04	-17	12	-29	15.9	14.8	1.04	16.6	14.5	2.10
Jalen Green	65	64	-1.03	0.53	-1.57	-0.59	-15	10	-25	16.1	13.9	2.18	15.7	14.7	0.96

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Merrill	47	49	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.41	13	-8	21	15.3	15.3	0.04	14.5	15.9	-1.38
Donovan Mitchell	86	85	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	1	3	15.5	14.4	1.12	16.2	11.2	4.95
Max Strus	68	66	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	3	-1	15.2	15.5	-0.32	15.9	14.1	1.78
Georges Niang	48	51	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	-5	15	16.1	14.7	1.42	14.0	16.5	-2.43
Isaac Okoro	64	61	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.35	-2	7	-9	15.5	15.0	0.56	16.2	13.9	2.27
Tristan Thompson	37	35	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.13	2	3	-1	15.1	15.4	-0.32	15.9	15.0	0.90
Jarrett Allen	55	55	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.26	-4	9	-13	15.2	15.4	-0.25	15.5	14.9	0.61
Craig Porter Jr.	19	20	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	1	3	14.7	15.4	-0.71	11.7	16.1	-4.41
Dean Wade	43	43	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	6	-7	15.0	15.5	-0.46	15.5	15.1	0.43
Caris LeVert	53	55	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	8	-11	14.9	15.8	-0.92	14.3	16.4	-2.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.36,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.76,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.73,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.54,0.69,0.63,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 111, MEM 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.76,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.83,0.68,0.63,0.91,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.84,0.85,0.74,1	89.0%
DAL 130, ATL 132	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.91,0.9,0.78,0.83,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.57,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.84,1	89.0%
LAC 109, SAC 116	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.84,0.72,0.7,0.6,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.77,0.69,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.79,0.91,0.99,1	88.9%