NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	118		Excitement	8.4 [213]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +64.8%
Denver Nuggets	117		Comeback	36.6 [28]		LVP	Kenrich Williams (OKC): -4.0%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.65	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.65	0.04	0.61	0.00	20	52%	0.70	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.07
Jalen Williams	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.00	20	57%	0.19	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jaylin Williams	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.02	0.00	4	110%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chet Holmgren	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.01	12	57%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Aaron Wiggins	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luguentz Dort	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.00	0.03	8	65%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Ousmane Dieng	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Joe	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	67%	0.10	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
Cason Wallace	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Giddey	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.12	-0.00	10	64%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.05	-0.04	10	59%	0.18	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	18	56%	0.18	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.00	-0.00	8	72%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.06	0.02	13	48%	0.07	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.06	-0.02	15	63%	0.13	3	-0.10	8	87%	0.02
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.01	10	35%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	1.8	27.9	14.6	31.5	1.7	34.5	135.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +46.2%

OKC +7.6%

DEN -15.9%

DEN -4.1%

OKC +16.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	13.8	15.3	14.5	119.2	118.2	113.9
season	13.8	14.9		117.4	116.7
opponent	14.6	14.7		111.6	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.8	13.5	13.9	14.0	13.8
DEN	15.0	15.8	14.3	16.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chet Holmgren	67	69	0.87	-0.37	1.23	0.57	10	-9	19	12.9	15.9	-3.02	15.4	14.8	0.62
Isaiah Joe	55	54	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.51	12	-11	23	13.2	14.6	-1.37	14.9	15.7	-0.78
Jalen Williams	69	71	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.44	10	-9	19	13.5	14.6	-1.11	15.5	14.8	0.66
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	76	76	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.59	3	-2	5	13.6	14.6	-0.96	15.5	14.6	0.91
Luguentz Dort	51	52	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.49	5	-4	9	14.0	13.6	0.44	16.0	14.5	1.51
Ousmane Dieng	10	8	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	5	-9	13.5	13.9	-0.37	15.4	15.3	0.12
Aaron Wiggins	25	24	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.00	-4	5	-9	15.4	13.3	2.05	14.7	15.4	-0.73
Cason Wallace	38	39	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.05	-7	8	-15	13.8	13.8	-0.02	14.6	15.7	-1.11
Kenrich Williams	26	27	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.05	-7	8	-15	14.7	13.5	1.22	14.6	15.5	-0.97
Josh Giddey	35	33	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.07	-7	8	-15	14.7	13.3	1.37	13.6	16.1	-2.48
Jaylin Williams	43	42	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.11	-6	7	-13	14.7	13.1	1.62	16.5	14.4	2.15

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Strawther	32	31	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.05	8	-9	17	14.3	15.7	-1.36	14.0	13.7	0.25
Reggie Jackson	46	45	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.06	4	-5	9	14.3	16.1	-1.75	14.1	13.6	0.44
DeAndre Jordan	13	13	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.01	5	-6	11	17.1	15.0	2.09	11.8	14.1	-2.28
Michael Porter Jr.	68	67	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.07	1	-2	3	15.0	15.9	-0.93	14.5	12.3	2.19
Justin Holiday	52	52	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.16	-8	7	-15	15.6	14.9	0.66	13.8	13.8	0.04
Peyton Watson	35	35	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.59	3	-4	7	15.1	15.3	-0.19	12.5	14.5	-1.99
Christian Braun	52	53	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.56	1	-2	3	15.1	15.4	-0.31	13.3	14.4	-1.13
Jamal Murray	54	56	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.49	-3	2	-5	16.1	14.2	1.87	14.0	13.6	0.44
Aaron Gordon	66	66	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.48	-7	6	-13	15.5	14.7	0.85	14.2	13.2	0.97
Nikola Jokic	77	77	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	-0.56	-9	8	-17	15.3	15.3	-0.01	13.9	13.7	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.71,0.59,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.79,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 88, BOS 83	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.86,0.85,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.91,0.96,0.91,0.58,0	92.6%
MIA 95, WAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.81,0.91,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.83,0	92.5%
TOR 84, WAS 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.69,0.55,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.78,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.53,0.63,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.96,0.85,0.9,0.74,0	92.4%