NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	8.4 [185]		MVP	Nick Young (WAS): +19.9%
Washington Wizards	94		Comeback	49.0 [64]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (WAS): -45.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.15	-0.01	0.16	-0.00	2	33%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.09
Dwyane Wade	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,0.09	-0.05	0.16	0.02	19	45%	0.19	3	-0.10	6	67%	0.12
LeBron James	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0,0.04,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.00	0.02	19	64%	0.21	4	-0.13	12	92%	0.06
Chris Bosh	0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.13,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07	-0.01	0.05	-0.03	10	67%	0.23	7	-0.16	10	70%	-0.04
Juwan Howard	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	1	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Carlos Arroyo	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Young	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.06	0.00	23	62%	0.31	1	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.04	0.00	9	54%	0.07	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.04
Al Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Cartier Martin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Andray Blatche	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.05	-0.00	21	42%	0.04	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Trevor Booker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	7	31%	-0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.19,-0.22,-0.45	-0.45	-0.14	-0.32	-0.01	16	34%	-0.28	5	-0.17	6	83%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	28.5	16.4	28.2	1.7	43.3	145.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +8.5%

MIA +57.2%

WAS -12.3%

WAS -1.0%

WAS -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	13.8	15.9	15.5	96.9	97.9	105.7
season	16.0	15.1		109.0	100.9
opponent	15.2	15.6		108.7	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.2	14.3	15.1	11.7	13.8
WAS	13.5	17.8	17.0	16.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	36	33	1.11	-0.61	1.73	0.73	13	-12	25	14.4	13.4	0.97	14.9	16.5	-1.57
Mario Chalmers	60	58	0.87	-0.37	1.23	0.46	14	-13	27	12.7	15.5	-2.86	16.9	14.5	2.34
LeBron James	83	82	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.53	6	-5	11	13.0	18.1	-5.15	16.0	15.4	0.68
Chris Bosh	74	73	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.56	-1	2	-3	13.8	13.8	-0.08	15.4	17.6	-2.20
Dwyane Wade	80	81	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.52	-10	11	-21	13.9	13.4	0.47	15.7	17.1	-1.42
Erick Dampier	17	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	1	-1	16.6	13.2	3.40	14.4	16.2	-1.80
Juwan Howard	24	23	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.09	2	-1	3	13.8	13.8	0.08	17.6	15.4	2.20
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	32	32	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.00	-5	6	-11	15.1	13.2	1.91	15.0	16.4	-1.45
Carlos Arroyo	38	38	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	0.01	-13	14	-27	15.5	12.7	2.86	14.5	16.9	-2.34
Joel Anthony	46	44	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	-0.35	-1	2	-3	12.6	14.8	-2.16	18.2	14.0	4.14

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hilton Armstrong	41	41	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.14	-2	1	-3	17.1	15.1	1.98	12.8	14.5	-1.75
JaVale McGee	54	55	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-4	7	15.2	16.8	-1.59	14.9	12.3	2.67
Cartier Martin	4	3	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-1	1	21.7	15.7	6.07	10.7	13.9	-3.21
Alonzo Gee	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-1	1	0.0	15.9	-15.94	0.0	13.9	-13.92
Trevor Booker	13	15	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	6	-13	16.2	15.9	0.34	17.4	13.1	4.28
Andray Blatche	83	83	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.47	6	-7	13	15.9	16.2	-0.34	13.1	17.4	-4.28
Al Thornton	53	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.51	3	-4	7	16.3	15.5	0.77	13.7	13.8	-0.08
Nick Young	92	94	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.47	-1	0	-1	15.7	21.7	-6.07	14.0	8.0	6.02
Kirk Hinrich	96	98	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.49	-1	0	-1	15.9	0.0	15.94	13.8	0.0	13.78
Josh Howard	44	46	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.56	-6	5	-11	15.3	16.5	-1.14	13.3	14.2	-0.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.81,0.91,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.83,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 105, PHI 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.88,0.86,0.68,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.9,0.96,0.99,0.98,0	92.1%
CHH 86, CHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.72,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.85,0.84,0.74,0	92.0%
HOU 96, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.97,0.93,0.97,0.89,0.91,0.92,0	91.4%