NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	132		Excitement	6.8 [468]		MVP	Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA): +27.8%
Miami Heat	142		Comeback	4.0 [408]		LVP	Buddy Hield (IND): -13.0%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrese Haliburton	0.24	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24	0.26	0.04	0.06	28	65%	0.29	2	-0.05	12	67%	-0.02
Obi Toppin	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.01	15	71%	0.19	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.06
Aaron Nesmith	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.01	5	82%	0.11	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Bennedict Mathurin	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Brown	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	0.00	0.08	9	60%	0.02	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Ben Sheppard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarace Walker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	14	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.06
Andrew Nembhard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.05	0.02	16	37%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.16	0.00	13	73%	0.32	3	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Duncan Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.06	0.02	9	80%	0.17	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.01	-0.00	10	75%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.02	0.02	11	73%	0.11	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.14	-0.00	0.08	19	62%	0.13	3	-0.08	20	90%	0.04
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	1	83%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	9	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	9	58%	0.01	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.0	32.3	15.3	30.9	2.0	43.2	152.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +15.3%

MIA +19.9%

MIA +13.8%

IND -4.5%

MIA +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	13.1	14.0	14.5	123.4	134.0	113.9
season	13.8	14.9		120.0	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.7		111.0	117.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.0	11.2	13.0	13.2	13.1
MIA	15.0	15.4	15.3	10.8	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Obi Toppin	74	73	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.14	6	-16	22	12.4	14.5	-2.15	15.0	11.8	3.15
Isaiah Jackson	11	11	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-8	6	15.2	12.8	2.37	16.6	13.7	2.95
Ben Sheppard	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-10	10	8.0	13.1	-5.10	0.0	14.0	-13.99
Jarace Walker	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-10	10	8.0	13.1	-5.10	0.0	14.0	-13.99
Aaron Nesmith	47	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-8	6	13.7	12.6	1.08	14.2	13.8	0.47
Andrew Nembhard	48	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.14	0	-10	10	13.0	13.1	-0.06	15.2	13.1	2.12
Bruce Brown	78	75	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.01	-6	-4	-2	12.0	15.8	-3.80	13.6	14.9	-1.29
Bennedict Mathurin	55	54	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	4	-18	12.8	13.3	-0.49	13.2	14.8	-1.53
Tyrese Haliburton	87	88	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-4	-2	13.1	12.9	0.19	14.0	14.2	-0.21
Myles Turner	64	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.11	-13	3	-16	13.8	11.9	1.96	13.8	14.3	-0.45
Buddy Hield	69	70	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.36	-13	3	-16	13.8	11.8	2.00	12.8	16.4	-3.59

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	74	73	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.06	22	-12	34	12.9	16.5	-3.59	13.0	13.2	-0.22
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	72	75	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.16	18	-8	26	13.3	15.5	-2.27	13.4	12.3	1.06
Duncan Robinson	67	67	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.29	9	1	8	13.7	14.5	-0.79	13.2	12.8	0.45
Caleb Martin	60	59	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.04	15	-5	20	13.0	15.3	-2.28	12.5	13.8	-1.33
Kevin Love	37	39	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	0	10	13.5	14.2	-0.69	13.3	12.9	0.32
Orlando Robinson	17	15	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.15	5	5	0	12.6	14.2	-1.60	14.1	12.9	1.25
Jimmy Butler	84	84	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.16	-3	13	-16	14.3	12.8	1.48	12.7	14.5	-1.87
Thomas Bryant	12	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	11	-12	16.6	13.7	2.92	13.1	13.1	0.03
Bam Adebayo	27	28	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.02	-2	12	-14	14.5	13.8	0.66	13.7	12.8	0.89
Haywood Highsmith	28	31	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.13	-12	22	-34	16.2	13.2	3.07	13.3	13.0	0.33
Kyle Lowry	52	52	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	0.06	-11	21	-32	16.2	11.8	4.44	12.8	13.3	-0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.3,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.83,0.92,0.93,1,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 92, NJN 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.73,0.69,0.88,0.88,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,1	92.4%
BOS 83, PHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.81,0.93,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	92.3%
BKN 117, IND 128	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.18,0.26,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.68,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.94,1,0.99,1,1	92.1%