NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	123		Excitement	5.1 [773]		MVP	Clint Capela (ATL): +15.6%
New Orleans Pelicans	105		Comeback	3.8 [244]		LVP	Jonas Valanciunas (NOP): -7.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clint Capela	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.04	0.02	9	85%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jalen Johnson	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.03	0.04	13	70%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Trae Young	0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.06	-0.03	15	61%	0.18	5	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Onyeka Okongwu	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.15	0.00	0.05	6	85%	0.10	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Saddiq Bey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	13	46%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrison Mathews	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	14	36%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Andre Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Dejounte Murray	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	20	48%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.02	11	65%	0.10	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Zion Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.02	0.04	16	60%	0.08	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.02
Dyson Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	87%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	12	48%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.00	0.03	10	70%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
E.J. Liddell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kira Lewis Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Ryan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Herbert Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	13	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.0	27.0	14.8	26.4	2.4	28.5	126.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +16.3%

ATL +6.7%

ATL +25.9%

NOP -0.1%

ATL +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	NOP	NBA	ATL	NOP	NBA
this game	15.4	14.7	14.5	129.5	109.4	113.9
season	14.2	14.4		115.7	114.8
opponent	14.7	14.3		111.0	118.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.5	13.4	14.9	19.8	15.4
NOP	12.7	15.4	15.7	15.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Andre Hunter	59	59	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.02	17	1	16	16.2	14.2	1.95	14.8	14.6	0.26
Trae Young	78	78	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.06	18	0	18	15.4	15.5	-0.05	14.7	15.0	-0.33
Clint Capela	57	58	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.11	19	-1	20	15.1	15.9	-0.86	14.6	14.9	-0.23
Jalen Johnson	72	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.13	19	-1	20	15.1	16.4	-1.32	14.6	15.1	-0.47
Dejounte Murray	72	73	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	5	8	15.6	14.8	0.80	14.5	15.6	-1.10
Bogdan Bogdanovic	41	42	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	11	-4	15.0	15.8	-0.76	15.2	14.4	0.82
Saddiq Bey	51	51	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.06	4	14	-10	14.9	16.0	-1.10	15.1	14.3	0.83
Onyeka Okongwu	38	38	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	19	-20	15.9	15.1	0.86	14.9	14.6	0.23
Garrison Mathews	7	7	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	24	-30	16.9	15.3	1.54	12.9	14.9	-2.02

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Nance Jr.	30	30	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.17	6	-24	30	15.1	14.6	0.49	15.7	15.3	0.39
E.J. Liddell	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-17	16	9.0	14.9	-5.85	22.5	15.3	7.22
Matt Ryan	33	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-13	8	14.9	14.7	0.23	15.2	15.5	-0.29
Dyson Daniels	42	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-14	10	14.9	14.6	0.23	16.4	14.7	1.69
Zion Williamson	65	65	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-14	10	14.4	15.5	-1.07	15.5	15.2	0.34
Jordan Hawkins	46	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-15	12	15.5	14.1	1.40	16.6	14.4	2.22
Kira Lewis Jr.	18	18	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-14	10	14.8	14.7	0.06	16.7	15.1	1.59
Brandon Ingram	64	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.00	-10	-8	-2	14.5	15.1	-0.59	15.3	15.8	-0.51
CJ McCollum	68	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.16	-19	1	-20	14.5	15.2	-0.74	15.1	16.4	-1.31
Jonas Valanciunas	45	44	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.14	-20	2	-22	14.8	14.6	0.22	13.8	16.8	-3.05
Herbert Jones	67	65	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	0.14	-26	8	-34	14.7	14.7	0.06	15.0	16.4	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.79,0.69,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.22,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 87, MIN 72	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.0%
NOP 107, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.71,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.69,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.25,0.14,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%
OKC 98, CHI 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.23,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0	93.7%